Match Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Club October 1, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.88 — +13.0% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund shows clear superiority in quality and recent form, especially at home, while Athletic Club struggles with poor away form and lower attacking threat. Expect Dortmund to control the game and likely secure a home win. Both teams have scoring potential, so a match with goals is probable. The best betting options focus on Dortmund's victory, both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.88 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 53% +0.88u

+88%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · BIL 4-2-3-1

DOR · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · BIL

9 Guirassy ⚽

Subs used · DOR

63'

Beier ↑ ·

Adeyemi ↓

63'

Brandt ↑ ·

Chukwuemeka ↓

69'

Nmecha ↑ ·

Bellingham ↓

70'

Schlotterbeck ↑ ·

Süle ↓

87'

Silva ↑ ·

Guirassy ↓

Subs used · BIL

46'

Laporte ↑ ·

Vivian ↓

46'

Galarreta ↑ ·

Jauregizar ↓

46'

Guruzeta ↑ ·

Williams ↓

63'

Serrano ↑ ·

Gómez ↓

80' Sánchez ↑ ·

Sannadi ↓

📊 Statistics

DOR 4 – 1 BIL

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.08

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.96

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 4 – 1

Daniel Svensson

Assist · Karim Adeyemi · 1–0

⚽

28'

43'

▮

Aitor Paredes

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

Aymeric Laporte ↓ · Daniel Vivian ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta ↓ · Mikel Jauregizar ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

Gorka Guruzeta ↓ · Iñaki Williams ↑

Substitution 3

Carney Chukwuemeka

Assist · Serhou Guirassy · 2–0

⚽

50'

59'

▮

Andoni Gorosabel

Yellow Card

61'

⚽

Gorka Guruzeta

2–1

Maximilian Beier ↓ · Karim Adeyemi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

Julian Brandt ↓ · Carney Chukwuemeka ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

⇄

Nico Serrano ↓ · Unai Gómez ↑

Substitution 4

Felix Nmecha ↓ · Jobe Bellingham ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

Nico Schlotterbeck ↓ · Niklas Süle ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

80'

⇄

Ibon Sánchez ↓ · Maroan Sannadi ↑

Substitution 5

Serhou Guirassy

Assist · Marcel Sabitzer · 3–1

⚽

82'

Fábio Silva ↓ · Serhou Guirassy ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

Maximilian Beier

Yellow Card

▮

89'

Julian Brandt

Assist · Maximilian Beier · 4–1

⚽

90+1'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat Athletic Club 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 6, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.08 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Daniel Svensson (28'), Carney Chukwuemeka (50'), Gorka Guruzeta (61'), Serhou Guirassy (82'), Julian Brandt (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 3 landed and 2 missed, for a net +0.00 units (Brier 0.158).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 3 W · 2 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Team Total Under 0.5	2.75	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.88	—	60%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
AH Home -0.5	1.87	—	60%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	85%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 2 L	+0.00u	+0% ROI

Match Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Club October 1, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Home Win at 1.88 — +13.0% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled