Match Chelsea vs Benfica September 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Chelsea shows a slight edge at home despite recent mixed form, while Benfica has been more consistent lately. The home side's attack matches reasonably against Benfica's defense, but Benfica's defense is notably stronger. Expect a competitive game with a moderate chance for Chelsea to win, a fair chance of a draw, and a lower chance for Benfica to win. Goals are likely, with a good chance both teams will score. The total goals market suggests a moderately open game with over 2.5 goals possible. Value lies in backing Chelsea to win and both teams to score.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

CHE 4-3-3 · BEN 4-3-3

CHE · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · BEN

49 Garnacho

Subs used · CHE

54'

Willian ↑ ·

Buonanotte ↓

61'

Gittens ↑ ·

Garnacho ↓

61'

Pedro ↑ ·

George ↓

81'

Acheampong ↑ ·

Badiashile ↓

81'

James ↑ ·

Gusto ↓

Subs used · BEN

73'

Araújo ↑ ·

Silva ↓

77'

Barreiro ↑ ·

Ríos ↓

77'

Ivanović ↑ ·

Sudakov ↓

77'

Schjelderup ↑ ·

Lukebakio ↓

90'

Araújo ↑ ·

Aursnes ↓

📊 Statistics

CHE 1 – 0 BEN

56%

Possession (%)

44%

0.93

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 1 – 0

Richard Ríos

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

18'

34'

▮

Enzo Barrenechea

Yellow Card

Enzo Fernández

Yellow Card

▮

45+1'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Facundo Buonanotte

Yellow Card

▮

46'

49'

▮

Richard Ríos

Yellow Card

Estêvão Willian ↓ · Facundo Buonanotte ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

54'

Jamie Gittens ↓ · Alejandro Garnacho ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

João Pedro ↓ · Tyrique George ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

João Pedro

Yellow Card

▮

62'

63'

▮

Fredrik Aursnes

Yellow Card

73'

⇄

Tomás Araújo ↓ · António Silva ↑

Substitution 1

77'

⇄

Leandro Barreiro ↓ · Richard Ríos ↑

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

Franjo Ivanović ↓ · Georgiy Sudakov ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

Andreas Schjelderup ↓ · Dodi Lukebakio ↑

Substitution 4

Josh Acheampong ↓ · Benoît Badiashile ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

Reece James ↓ · Malo Gusto ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

83'

▮

Nicolás Otamendi

Yellow Card

Pedro Neto

Yellow Card

▮

88'

90'

⇄

Henrique Araújo ↓ · Fredrik Aursnes ↑

Substitution 5

João Pedro

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

João Pedro

Red Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Chelsea beat Benfica 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Richard Ríos (18'). João Pedro was sent off in the 90+6' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 3 landed and 2 missed, for a net -0.85 units (Brier 0.180).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 3 W · 2 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.70	—	58%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.69	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.26	—	80%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.19	—	85%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 2 L	−0.85u	−17% ROI