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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football World UEFA Champions League Chelsea — Benfica

Match Chelsea vs Benfica September 30, 2025

Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L W W L L
Kick-off
Tue 30 Sep · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W L W L L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Daniel Siebert, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 1.70
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.73
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.69
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.93 – 0.86
Δ +0.07
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
3 / 5
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
Chelsea shows a slight edge at home despite recent mixed form, while Benfica has been more consistent lately. The home side's attack matches reasonably against Benfica's defense, but Benfica's defense is notably stronger. Expect a competitive game with a moderate chance for Chelsea to win, a fair chance of a draw, and a lower chance for Benfica to win. Goals are likely, with a good chance both teams will score. The total goals market suggests a moderately open game with over 2.5 goals possible. Value lies in backing Chelsea to win and both teams to score.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

CHE 4-3-3 · BEN 4-3-3
Subs used · CHE
54' Willian ↑ · Buonanotte
61' Gittens ↑ · Garnacho
61' Pedro ↑ · George
81' Acheampong ↑ · Badiashile
81' James ↑ · Gusto
Subs used · BEN
73' Araújo ↑ · Silva
77' Barreiro ↑ · Ríos
77' Ivanović ↑ · Sudakov
77' Schjelderup ↑ · Lukebakio
90' Araújo ↑ · Aursnes

📊 Statistics

CHE 10 BEN
56%
Possession (%)
44%
0.93
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.86
8
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
4
5
Shots Inside Box
7
3
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
14
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
5
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

21 · 1 – 0
Richard Ríos
Own goal · 1–0
18'
34'
Enzo Barrenechea
Yellow Card
Enzo Fernández
Yellow Card
45+1'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Facundo Buonanotte
Yellow Card
46'
49'
Richard Ríos
Yellow Card
Estêvão Willian ↓ · Facundo Buonanotte ↑
Substitution 1
54'
Jamie Gittens ↓ · Alejandro Garnacho ↑
Substitution 2
61'
João Pedro ↓ · Tyrique George ↑
Substitution 3
61'
João Pedro
Yellow Card
62'
63'
Fredrik Aursnes
Yellow Card
73'
Tomás Araújo ↓ · António Silva ↑
Substitution 1
77'
Leandro Barreiro ↓ · Richard Ríos ↑
Substitution 2
77'
Franjo Ivanović ↓ · Georgiy Sudakov ↑
Substitution 3
77'
Andreas Schjelderup ↓ · Dodi Lukebakio ↑
Substitution 4
Josh Acheampong ↓ · Benoît Badiashile ↑
Substitution 4
81'
Reece James ↓ · Malo Gusto ↑
Substitution 5
81'
83'
Nicolás Otamendi
Yellow Card
Pedro Neto
Yellow Card
88'
90'
Henrique Araújo ↓ · Fredrik Aursnes ↑
Substitution 5
João Pedro
Yellow Card
90+6'
João Pedro
Red Card
90+6'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 3 W · 2 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.70 58% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.73 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.69 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.26 80% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.19 85% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each 3 W · 2 L −0.85u −17% ROI