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Home › England › Premier League › Chelsea — West Ham

Chelsea vs West Ham 3:2: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sat 31 Jan · 17:30
3:2
Full-time
West Ham
West Ham
W L L L W Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Anthony Taylor, England
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.52 ✗
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 65% · book 1.65 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.25 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
2.55 – 1.12
Δ +1.43
Possession
71% – 29%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.50 — +11.6% better than the market.

Chelsea enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over West Ham. Their potent attack faces a West Ham defense that has struggled, suggesting Chelsea can press high and create chances. West Ham's form is patchy, and their offensive threat looks limited against Chelsea's compact block. Expect a controlled tempo with Chelsea likely dominating possession and probing for openings.

  • Home advantage with superior defensive solidity
  • West Ham's inconsistent form and weaker attack
  • Chelsea's pressing and chance creation edge

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 5.50 ✗ Lost
AI 20% Implied 18% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CHE 4-1-4-1 · WES 4-4-1-1
CHE · 4-1-4-1 4-4-1-1 · WES 1 Sánchez 27 Gusto 23 Chalobah 5 Badiashile 21 Hato 25 Caicedo 11 Gittens 10 Palmer 8 Fernández ⚽ 49 Garnacho 9 Delap 23 Aréola 29 Wan-Bissaka 15 Mavropanos 25 Todibo 12 Diouf 20 Bowen ⚽ 28 Souček 18 Fernandes 7 Summerville ⚽ 19 Felipe 11 Castellanos
Subs used · CHE
26' Neto ↑ · Gittens ↓
46' Fofana ↑ · Badiashile ↓
46' Cucurella ↑ · Hato ↓
46' Pedro ↑ · Garnacho ↓
81' James ↑ · Gusto ↓
Subs used · WES
66' Kilman ↑ · Pablo ↓
76' Wilson ↑ · Castellanos ↓
81' Traore ↑ · Bowen ↓
81' Scarles ↑ · Diouf ↓

Statistics

CHE 3 – 2 WES
71%
Possession (%)
29%
2.55
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.12
14
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
6
4
Shots off Target
2
11
Shots Inside Box
8
9
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
2
11
Fouls
13
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
69%
3
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

20 · 3 – 2
7'
⚽
J. Bowen
Assist · A. Wan-Bissaka · 0–1
P. Neto ↓ · J. Gittens ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
26'
36'
⚽
C. Summerville
Assist · A. Wan-Bissaka · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
W. Fofana ↓ · B. Badiashile ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
M. Cucurella ↓ · J. Hato ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
46'
Joao Pedro ↓ · A. Garnacho ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
46'
Joao Pedro
Assist · W. Fofana · 1–2
⚽
57'
66'
⇄
M. Kilman ↓ · Pablo ↑
Substitution 1
M. Cucurella
2–2
⚽
70'
76'
⇄
C. Wilson ↓ · T. Castellanos ↑
Substitution 2
R. James ↓ · M. Gusto ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
81'
⇄
A. Traore ↓ · J. Bowen ↑
Substitution 3
81'
⇄
O. Scarles ↓ · M. Diouf ↑
Substitution 4
Moisés Caicedo
Yellow Card
▮
85'
E. Fernandez
Assist · Joao Pedro · 3–2
⚽
90'
Enzo Fernández
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
90+4'
▮
Oliver Scarles
Yellow Card
João Pedro
Yellow Card
▮
90+7'
90+7'
▮
Adama Traoré
Yellow Card
90+11'
▮
Jean-Clair Todibo
Red Card
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Chelsea beat West Ham 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 71% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.55 to 1.12. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Bowen (7'), C. Summerville (36'), Joao Pedro (57'), M. Cucurella (70'), E. Fernandez (90'). Jean-Clair Todibo was sent off in the 90+11' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.10 units (Brier 0.124).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.52 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.65 — 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.25 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.71 — 54% Cashed +0.71 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.45 — 35% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.69 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.58 — 68% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.50 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.17 — 88% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 — 57% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.20 — 68% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.75 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 94% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.18 — 80% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Away Win 6.42 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.06 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.10u −30% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CHE – WES @ 5.50
+11.6%
Edge
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