Match Metz vs Lorient May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.2% better than the market.

Lorient arrive with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz’s defensive solidity could keep things tight, but Lorient’s sharper attack and consistent away momentum hint at a controlled game favoring the visitors. The moderate pace implied by odds supports a balanced tempo with tactical discipline.

Lorient’s offensive edge challenges Metz’s defense.
Home side’s recent struggles limit attacking threat.
Game likely to feature cautious buildup and few clear-cut chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.23 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MET 4-2-3-1 · LOR 3-4-2-1

MET · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · LOR

11 Kvilitaia

Subs used · MET

40'

Abuashvili ↑ ·

Mbala ↓

64'

Diallo ↑ ·

Kvilitaia ↓

65'

Stambouli ↑ ·

Kouao ↓

76'

Munongo ↑ ·

Gbamin ↓

Subs used · LOR

62'

Pagis ↑ ·

Karim ↓

62'

Toure ↑ ·

Faye ↓

74'

Dieng ↑ ·

Tosin ↓

74'

Avom ↑ ·

Makengo ↓

90+5'

Silva ↑ ·

Katseris ↓

📊 Statistics

MET 0 – 4 LOR

54%

Possession (%)

46%

0.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.34

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 0 – 4

S. Sane

Yellow Card

▮

15'

▮

A. Faye

Yellow Card

G. Tsitaishvili

Yellow Card

▮

23'

24'

⚽

J. Makengo

Assist · A. Kouassi · 0–1

G. Abuashvili ↓ · N. Mbala ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

40'

42'

▮

J. Makengo

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

62'

⇄

P. Pagis ↓ · D. Karim ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

I. Toure ↓ · A. Faye ↑

Substitution 2

H. Diallo ↓ · G. Kvilitaia ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

B. Stambouli ↓ · K. Kouao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

74'

⇄

B. Dieng ↓ · A. Tosin ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

A. Avom ↓ · J. Makengo ↑

Substitution 4

B. Munongo ↓ · J. Gbamin ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

84'

⚽

B. Dieng

Assist · P. Pagis · 0–2

90+5'

⇄

Igor Silva ↓ · P. Katseris ↑

Substitution 5

90+7'

⚽

A. Avom

Assist · P. Pagis · 0–3

90+8'

⚽

N. Cadiou

0–4

Full-time · 0 – 4

Match recap

Lorient won 4–0 away at Metz. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.34 to 0.45. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.34 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Makengo (24'), B. Dieng (84'), A. Avom (90+7'), N. Cadiou (90+8').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.69 units (Brier 0.185).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.22	2.23	53%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.23	2.20	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	2.38	48%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.65	1.66	53%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.76	1.67	49%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.53	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.74	1.67	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.75	2.55	28%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.45	2.30	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	4.50	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.37	1.36	77%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	1.46	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.00	12.99	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.02	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.80	3.60	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	1.18	73%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Home Win	3.37	3.05	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.69u	−16% ROI