Match Le Havre vs Metz April 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.88 — +11.1% better than the market.

Le Havre holds a clear quality edge and home momentum against a struggling Metz side. Their defensive solidity and slightly better recent form suggest a controlled game with limited chances. Metz’s attack faces a tough test against Le Havre’s compact block, likely curbing goal opportunities.

Home advantage with a solid defensive setup
Metz’s attack under pressure from disciplined home defense
Moderate pace expected, favoring a tactical, low-scoring match

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.88 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 53% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAV 4-2-3-1 · MET 3-5-2

HAV · 4-2-3-1 3-5-2 · MET

25 Samatta ⚽

Subs used · HAV

46'

Gourna-Douath ↑ ·

Ndiaye ↓

69'

Kyeremeh ↑ ·

Doucoure ↓

79'

Boufal ↑ ·

Kechta ↓

79'

Pembele ↑ ·

Zouaoui ↓

90+4'

N. Mosengo ↑ ·

Ebonog ↓

Subs used · MET

18'

Mbala ↑ ·

Gbamin ↓

46'

Stambouli ↑ ·

Toure ↓

46'

Pandore ↑ ·

Mboula ↓

82'

Abuashvili ↑ ·

Deminguet ↓

82'

Michal ↑ ·

Kvilitaia ↓

📊 Statistics

HAV 4 – 4 MET

47%

Possession (%)

53%

2.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 4 – 4

A. Samatta

1–0

⚽

G. Kvilitaia

Assist · G. Hein · 1–1

Y. Kechta

2–1

⚽

13'

18'

⇄

N. Mbala ↓ · J. Gbamin ↑

Substitution 1

45'

⚽

G. Hein (P)

Penalty · 2–2

Half-time · 2 – 2

L. Gourna-Douath ↓ · R. Ndiaye ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

B. Stambouli ↓ · A. Toure ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

J. Pandore ↓ · U. Mboula ↑

Substitution 3

47'

▮

Giorgi Kvilitaia

Yellow Card

Y. Zouaoui (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

52'

54'

⚽

J. Pandore

Assist · N. Mbala · 3–3

F. Doucoure

Assist · I. Soumare · 4–3

⚽

61'

G. Kyeremeh ↓ · F. Doucoure ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

S. Boufal ↓ · Y. Kechta ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

T. Pembele ↓ · Y. Zouaoui ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

Lucas Gourna-Douath

Yellow Card

▮

80'

82'

⇄

G. Abuashvili ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

L. Michal ↓ · G. Kvilitaia ↑

Substitution 5

85'

⚽

G. Hein

Assist · N. Mbala · 4–4

Simon Ebonog

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

D. N. Mosengo ↓ · S. Ebonog ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+4'

Timothee Pembele

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 4 – 4

Match recap

Le Havre and Metz drew 4–4. At half-time it was 2–2.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.33 to 1.50. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.33 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Samatta (5'), G. Kvilitaia (9'), Y. Kechta (13'), G. Hein (45'), Y. Zouaoui (52'), J. Pandore (54'), F. Doucoure (61'), G. Hein (85').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.45 units (Brier 0.273).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.88	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.88	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.67	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	44%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.15	—	37%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	41%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.50	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	86%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.24	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	89%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	23%	Cashed	+2.90	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	66%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Away Win	5.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.23	—	22%	Cashed	+2.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.71	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.45u	−3% ROI