Stade Brestois 29 vs Rennes 3:4 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.38 — +7.3% better than the market.

Rennes carry a clear quality edge into this Ligue 1 clash, with a stronger overall squad and a recent run of form that suggests growing momentum. Despite Brest's home comfort, Rennes' sharper attack faces a vulnerable Brest defense, hinting at a tactical mismatch. The pace may be moderate, with balanced goal expectations, but Rennes' pressing and efficiency could tilt the scales.

Rennes' offensive edge against Brest's leaky defense
Brest's recent home struggles versus Rennes' upward form
Moderate tempo likely favors Rennes' compact and efficient style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.38 ✓ Cashed

AI 78% Implied 72% +0.38u

+38%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BRE 4-2-3-1 · REN 4-4-2

BRE · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · REN

19 Ajorque

Subs used · BRE

76'

Coulibaly ↑ ·

M. Diaz ↓

76'

Mboup ↑ ·

Dina Ebimbe ↓

Subs used · REN

81'

Mukiele ↑ ·

Tamari ↓

81'

Nagida ↑ ·

Seidu ↓

88'

Szymanski ↑ ·

Blas ↓

Statistics

BRE 3 – 4 REN

40%

Possession (%)

60%

1.22

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.89

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 3 – 4

J. Dina Ebimbe

Assist · L. Ajorque · 1–0

⚽

20'

⚽

L. Blas

Assist · Q. Merlin · 1–1

Grégoire Coudert

Yellow Card

▮

34'

⚽

E. Lepaul (P)

Penalty · 1–2

36'

▮

Valentin Rongier

Yellow Card

Michel Diaz

Yellow Card

▮

39'

Half-time · 1 – 2

J. Dina Ebimbe

Assist · B. Locko · 2–2

⚽

57'

60'

▮

Lilian Brassier

Yellow Card

63'

⚽

B. Embolo

2–3

R. Labeau Lascary

3–3

⚽

70'

Hugo Magnetti

Yellow Card

▮

73'

74'

⚽

E. Lepaul (P)

Penalty · 3–4

S. Coulibaly ↓ · J. M. Diaz ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

76'

P. Mboup ↓ · J. Dina Ebimbe ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

81'

⇄

N. Mukiele ↓ · M. Tamari ↑

Substitution 1

81'

⇄

M. Nagida ↓ · A. Seidu ↑

Substitution 2

88'

⇄

S. Szymanski ↓ · L. Blas ↑

Substitution 3

90+2'

▮

Brice Samba

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

Rennes won 4–3 away at Stade Brestois 29. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.89 to 1.22. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.22 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Dina Ebimbe (4'), L. Blas (20'), E. Lepaul (34'), J. Dina Ebimbe (57'), B. Embolo (63'), R. Labeau Lascary (70'), E. Lepaul (74').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.55 units (Brier 0.171).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.26	—	52%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.02	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.93	—	51%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	55%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.63	—	52%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.72	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.40	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.38	—	78%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.20	—	30%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	—	75%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Draw	3.66	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.55u	−15% ROI

Stade Brestois 29 vs Rennes 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled