Toulouse vs Lorient 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.08 — +12.2% better than the market.

Toulouse holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a modest home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Stadium de Toulouse. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Lorient's less robust backline, offering Toulouse a pressing edge. However, recent form shows both sides struggling for consistency, hinting at a tight contest.

Home defensive strength vs away attack
Modest home momentum
Balanced recent form with slight home edge

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.08 ✓ Cashed

AI 54% Implied 48% +1.08u

+108%

ROI on stake

Lineups

TOU 3-4-3 · LOR 3-4-2-1

TOU · 3-4-3 3-4-2-1 · LOR

10 Gboho

Subs used · TOU

64'

Emersonn ↑ ·

Russell-Rowe ↓

65'

Kamanzi ↑ ·

Hidalgo ↓

84'

Sauer ↑ ·

Sidibe ↓

Subs used · LOR

73'

Tosin ↑ ·

Karim ↓

73'

Soumano ↑ ·

Dieng ↓

79'

Katseris ↑ ·

Le Bris ↓

Statistics

TOU 1 – 0 LOR

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.15

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.40

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

12 · 1 – 0

Santiago Hidalgo

Yellow Card

▮

Half-time · 0 – 0

47'

▮

Noah Cadiou

Yellow Card

Emersonn ↓ · J. Russell-Rowe ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

W. Kamanzi ↓ · S. Hidalgo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

70'

▮

Abdoulaye Faye

Yellow Card

73'

⇄

A. Tosin ↓ · D. Karim ↑

Substitution 1

73'

⇄

S. Soumano ↓ · B. Dieng ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⇄

P. Katseris ↓ · T. Le Bris ↑

Substitution 3

Emersonn

Assist · C. Casseres · 1–0

⚽

81'

M. Sauer ↓ · D. Sidibe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

Aron Dønnum

Yellow Card

▮

86'

90+10'

▮

Jean-Victor Makengo

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Toulouse beat Lorient 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.15 to 0.40. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Emersonn (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.81 units (Brier 0.174).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.08	—	54%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.22	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.97	—	49%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.77	—	53%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.91	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	82%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.42	—	54%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.39	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.10	—	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.29	—	74%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.31	—	28%	Cashed	+2.31	Cashed
Draw	3.25	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.75	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.21	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.81u	−17% ROI

Toulouse vs Lorient 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled