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Home France Ligue 1 Paris Saint Germain — Metz

Predictions Paris Saint Germain vs Metz February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 20:05
3:0
Full-time
Metz
Metz
L D L L D Away · last 5
Parc des Princes · Paris Referee Abdelatif Kherradji, France
Home Win · PSG
85%
Best 1.14
Draw
12%
Best 9.05
Away Win · MET
4%
Best 17.25
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 31.00
Fair odds
28.25
book 31.00 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 4% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (96%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 11.7%
Odds 11.20
Show model details
Implied probability 8.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.8%
Odds 19.67
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 51.6%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 48.4%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 13.7%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 3.5%
Odds 31.00
Show model details
Implied probability 3.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.5%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 86.3%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.6%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 49.4%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.8%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.2%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 15.5%
Odds 6.79
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
PSG – MET @ 31.00
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →