Match Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse January 25, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.3% better than the market.

Toulouse enters this Ligue 1 clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger overall profile, despite playing away. Their offensive capabilities slightly outmatch Brest's defensive setup, suggesting they can break through the home side's compact block. Brest, however, shows home momentum with recent wins and a pressing edge that could disrupt Toulouse's rhythm.

Toulouse's superior strength and offensive edge
Brest's recent home form and pressing style
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over wild open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.23 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BRE 4-2-2-2 · TOU 3-4-2-1

BRE · 4-2-2-2 3-4-2-1 · TOU

14 Lascary

Subs used · BRE

46'

Mboup ↑ ·

Tousart ↓

73'

Dina Ebimbe ↑ ·

Magnetti ↓

83'

Makalou ↑ ·

Labeau Lascary ↓

Subs used · TOU

80'

Vignolo ↑ ·

Hidalgo ↓

90'

Vossah ↑ ·

Demba ↓

📊 Statistics

BRE 0 – 2 TOU

55%

Possession (%)

45%

0.99

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 0 – 2

Ludovic Ajorque

Yellow Card

▮

15'

27'

⚽

P. Demba

Assist · M. McKenzie · 0–1

43'

⚽

Y. Gboho

Assist · P. Demba · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

P. Mboup ↓ · L. Tousart ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Daouda Guindo

Yellow Card

▮

54'

56'

▮

Yann Gboho

Yellow Card

J. Dina Ebimbe ↓ · H. Magnetti ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

80'

⇄

J. Vignolo ↓ · S. Hidalgo ↑

Substitution 1

83'

▮

Mark McKenzie

Yellow Card

H. Makalou ↓ · R. Labeau Lascary ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

90'

⇄

A. Vossah ↓ · P. Demba ↑

Substitution 2

90+2'

▮

Charlie Cresswell

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Toulouse won 2–0 away at Stade Brestois 29. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.99 to 0.37. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.37 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Demba (27'), Y. Gboho (43').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.11 units (Brier 0.157).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.23	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.06	—	45%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.76	—	49%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.95	—	44%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.99	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.46	—	74%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Away Win	2.88	—	44%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	75%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.80	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.15	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.10	—	92%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.28	—	70%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.30	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.11u	−18% ROI

Match Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse January 25, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.3% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled