P
Prognosist
P
Home › France › Ligue 1 › Marseille — Lens

Predictions by Market: Marseille vs Lens

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 24 Jan · 20:05
3:1
Full-time
Lens
Lens
D D W L W Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Benoît Bastien, France

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MAR
56%
Best 2.10
Draw
24%
Best 3.78
Away Win · LEN
20%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.65
Fair odds
2.44
book 2.65 · +8.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 41% · EV +8.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (59%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 55.9%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 24.2%
Odds 3.82
Show model details
Implied probability 26.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 19.9%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 41.1%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 83%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 17%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 37.2%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 19.9%
Odds 2.69
Show model details
Implied probability 37.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 44.2%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MAR – LEN @ 2.65
+8.8%
Edge
Forecast →