Toulouse vs Nice 5:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.97 — +14.3% better than the market.

Toulouse arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, showing signs of home momentum. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Nice's struggles, suggesting Toulouse can control the game tempo. Expect a compact block from Toulouse with effective set-piece threats, while Nice's attack faces a tough test.

Home advantage with a pressing edge
Toulouse's defense likely to stifle Nice's offense
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.97 ✓ Cashed

AI 58% Implied 51% +0.97u

+97%

ROI on stake

Lineups

TOU 3-4-3 · NIC 4-3-3

TOU · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · NIC

10 Gboho

Subs used · TOU

56'

Casseres ↑ ·

Vossah ↓

75'

Vignolo ↑ ·

Hidalgo ↓

82'

Koumbassa ↑ ·

Nicolaisen ↓

82'

Sauer ↑ ·

Demba ↓

82'

Edjouma ↑ ·

Magri ↓

Subs used · NIC

46'

Gouveia ↑ ·

Ndombele ↓

46'

Cho ↑ ·

Jansson ↓

67'

Kevin ↑ ·

Pereira ↓

70'

Abdi ↑ ·

Bard ↓

83'

Vanhoutte ↑ ·

Wahi ↓

Statistics

TOU 5 – 1 NIC

43%

Possession (%)

57%

1.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.82

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 5 – 1

S. Hidalgo

Assist · A. Donnum · 1–0

⚽

40'

▮

Abdulay Juma Bah

Yellow Card

F. Magri

Assist · Y. Gboho · 2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

T. Gouveia ↓ · T. Ndombele ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

M. Cho ↓ · I. Jansson ↑

Substitution 2

49'

⚽

E. Wahi

2–1

51'

▮

Morgan Sanson

Yellow Card

S. Hidalgo

Assist · F. Magri · 3–1

⚽

55'

C. Casseres ↓ · A. Vossah ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

Santiago Hidalgo

Yellow Card

▮

61'

67'

⇄

Kevin ↓ · E. Pereira ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

A. Abdi ↓ · M. Bard ↑

Substitution 4

C. Casseres

4–1

⚽

74'

J. Vignolo ↓ · S. Hidalgo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

J. Vignolo

5–1

⚽

80'

S. Koumbassa ↓ · R. Nicolaisen ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

M. Sauer ↓ · P. Demba ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

N. Edjouma ↓ · F. Magri ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

83'

⇄

C. Vanhoutte ↓ · E. Wahi ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Toulouse beat Nice 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 15, 10 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 1.65 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Hidalgo (7'), F. Magri (45'), E. Wahi (49'), S. Hidalgo (55'), C. Casseres (74'), J. Vignolo (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.97 units (Brier 0.167).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.97	—	58%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.01	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.10	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.95	—	49%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.78	—	52%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.94	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.44	—	58%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.28	—	83%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.80	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.37	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	92%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.30	—	74%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Draw	3.74	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	28%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.97	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.20	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.97u	−17% ROI

Toulouse vs Nice 5:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled