Monaco vs Lorient 1:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.64 — +7.3% better than the market.

Monaco holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite patchy recent form. Their attacking threat faces a Lorient defense that has struggled, suggesting Monaco can break through. The home side’s pressing and set-piece threat could exploit Lorient’s compact block, who rely on resilience but lack offensive firepower. Expect a moderately paced game with chances favoring Monaco’s sharper front line.

Monaco’s home edge and stronger attack
Lorient’s defensive vulnerability
Recent form favors Monaco’s scoring potential

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.64 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 61% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MON 4-2-2-2 · LOR 3-4-2-1

MON · 4-2-2-2 3-4-2-1 · LOR

9 Balogun

Subs used · MON

62'

Ilenikhena ↑ ·

Biereth ↓

69'

Vanderson ↑ ·

Ouattara ↓

69'

Fati ↑ ·

Teze ↓

90+4'

Brunner ↑ ·

Balogun ↓

Subs used · LOR

75'

Karim ↑ ·

Pagis ↓

75'

Bamba ↑ ·

Dieng ↓

90+2'

Adjei ↑ ·

Silva ↓

90+2'

Mvuka Mugisha ↑ ·

Le Bris ↓

90+6'

Bley ↑ ·

Cadiou ↓

Statistics

MON 1 – 3 LOR

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.20

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 1 – 3

Half-time · 0 – 0

G. Ilenikhena ↓ · M. Biereth ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

68'

⚽

B. Dieng

Assist · B. Meite · 0–1

Vanderson ↓ · K. Ouattara ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

A. Fati ↓ · J. Teze ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

Denis Zakaria

Yellow Card

▮

70'

75'

⇄

D. Karim ↓ · P. Pagis ↑

Substitution 1

75'

⇄

M. Bamba ↓ · B. Dieng ↑

Substitution 2

A. Fati

1–1

⚽

76'

85'

⚽

J. Makengo

Assist · D. Karim · 1–2

87'

⚽

D. Karim

Assist · N. Cadiou · 1–3

90+2'

⇄

N. Adjei ↓ · Igor Silva ↑

Substitution 3

90+2'

⇄

J. Mvuka Mugisha ↓ · T. Le Bris ↑

Substitution 4

P. Brunner ↓ · F. Balogun ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+4'

90+6'

⇄

M. Bley ↓ · N. Cadiou ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Lorient won 3–1 away at Monaco. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.46 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: B. Dieng (68'), A. Fati (76'), J. Makengo (85'), D. Karim (87').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.06 units (Brier 0.306).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.64	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.46	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	57%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.64	—	58%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.50	—	36%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.44	—	35%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.19	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.57	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.27	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.30	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	—	80%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.47	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.53	—	13%	Cashed	+4.53	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.01	—	13%	Cashed	+3.01	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+3.06u	+18% ROI

Monaco vs Lorient 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled