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Home France Ligue 1 Auxerre — Metz

Predictions Auxerre vs Metz December 7, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Auxerre
Auxerre
Home · last 5 D L W W W
Kick-off
Sun 07 Dec · 16:15
3:1
Full-time
Metz
Metz
L D L L D Away · last 5
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Auxerre Referee Eric Wattellier, France
Home Win · AUX
40%
Best 1.99
Draw
26%
Best 3.45
Away Win · MET
34%
Best 3.81
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 11.50
Fair odds
10.09
book 11.50 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 10% · EV +14.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (90%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 40.4%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 33.8%
Odds 3.96
Show model details
Implied probability 25.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.8%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.4%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 42.6%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.1%
Odds 3.90
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.9%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.6%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.4%
Odds 3.49
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 52.7%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.3%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 33.8%
Odds 2.89
Show model details
Implied probability 34.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 40.4%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
AUX – MET @ 11.50
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →