Match Metz vs Nice November 9, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.17 — +12.2% better than the market.

Nice enters this Ligue 1 clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, despite Metz's home comfort at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz's recent form shows some struggles, while Nice's slightly better momentum and sharper attack against Metz's defense suggest they can control the game tempo. Expect a tactical battle where Nice's offensive threat meets Metz's compact block.

Nice's superior overall strength and away resilience
Metz's defensive solidity tested by Nice's attack
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.17 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MET 4-2-3-1 · NIC 3-4-1-2

MET · 4-2-3-1 3-4-1-2 · NIC

30 Diallo ⚽

Subs used · MET

77'

Traore ↑ ·

Deminguet ↓

77'

Sane ↑ ·

Sabaly ↓

88'

Asoro ↑ ·

Diallo ↓

90+3'

Melieres ↑ ·

Hein ↓

90+3'

Stambouli ↑ ·

Toure ↓

Subs used · NIC

46'

Bard ↑ ·

Abdi ↓

71'

Boga ↑ ·

Kevin ↓

79'

Sanson ↑ ·

Diop ↓

79'

Moffi ↑ ·

Cho ↓

86'

Gouveia ↑ ·

Mendy ↓

📊 Statistics

MET 2 – 1 NIC

50%

Possession (%)

50%

1.46

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.93

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 2 – 1

21'

▮

Antoine Mendy

Yellow Card

33'

▮

Hicham Boudaoui

Yellow Card

35'

⚽

M. Cho

Assist · C. Vanhoutte · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⇄

M. Bard ↓ · A. Abdi ↑

Substitution 1

52'

▮

Abdulay Juma Bah

Yellow Card

G. Hein (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

53'

71'

⇄

J. Boga ↓ · Kevin ↑

Substitution 2

Cheick Tidiane Sabaly

Yellow Card

▮

74'

B. Traore ↓ · J. Deminguet ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

I. Sane ↓ · C. Sabaly ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

79'

⇄

M. Sanson ↓ · S. Diop ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

T. Moffi ↓ · M. Cho ↑

Substitution 4

H. Diallo

Assist · J. Gbamin · 2–1

⚽

84'

86'

⇄

T. Gouveia ↓ · A. Mendy ↑

Substitution 5

Gauthier Hein

Yellow Card

▮

87'

J. Asoro ↓ · H. Diallo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

88'

90+2'

▮

Melvin Bard

Yellow Card

C. Melieres ↓ · G. Hein ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

B. Stambouli ↓ · A. Toure ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Metz beat Nice 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.46 to 0.93. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Cho (35'), G. Hein (53'), H. Diallo (84').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.79 units (Brier 0.243).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.13	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.17	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.34	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.71	—	52%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.84	—	48%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.81	—	45%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.54	—	21%	Cashed	+1.54	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	73%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.35	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.57	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.05	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.20	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.78	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	73%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	3.54	—	21%	Cashed	+2.54	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.79u	−11% ROI