Match Nice vs Lyon October 18, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

In the upcoming clash between Nice and Lyon, the odds suggest a tightly contested match. Lyon holds a slight edge with a 43.18% estimated probability of winning, compared to Nice's 31.23%. The draw is also a viable outcome with a 25.59% chance. The market favors goals, with a 52.8% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. Both teams have a solid attacking profile, making the 'BTTS Yes' market appealing at 58.08% probability. The 'Double Chance X2' market offers a safer option, covering a Lyon win or draw with a high estimated probability of 68.77%.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NIC 3-4-3 · LYO 4-2-3-1

NIC · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · LYO

7 Boga

Subs used · NIC

66'

Bah ↑ ·

Dante ↓

73'

Louchet ↑ ·

Cho ↓

73'

Sanson ↑ ·

Diop ↓

73'

Gouveia ↑ ·

Boga ↓

Subs used · LYO

68'

Tagliafico ↑ ·

Vinicius ↓

68'

Ghezzal ↑ ·

Karabec ↓

77'

Niakhate ↑ ·

Mata ↓

77'

Tessmann ↑ ·

Morton ↓

77'

Moreira ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

📊 Statistics

NIC 3 – 2 LYO

31%

Possession (%)

69%

0.60

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 3 – 2

M. Bard

Assist · S. Diop · 1–0

⚽

26'

▮

Clinton Mata

Yellow Card

29'

⚽

P. Sulc

Assist · R. Kluivert · 1–1

S. Diop

Assist · J. Boga · 2–1

⚽

35'

Half-time · 2 – 1

H. Boudaoui

Assist · J. Clauss · 3–1

⚽

55'

Charles Vanhoutte

Yellow Card

▮

64'

J. Bah ↓ · Dante ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

68'

⇄

N. Tagliafico ↓ · Abner Vinicius ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⇄

R. Ghezzal ↓ · A. Karabec ↑

Substitution 2

T. Louchet ↓ · M. Cho ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

M. Sanson ↓ · S. Diop ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

T. Gouveia ↓ · J. Boga ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

77'

⇄

M. Niakhate ↓ · C. Mata ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

T. Tessmann ↓ · T. Morton ↑

Substitution 4

77'

⇄

A. Moreira ↓ · M. Fofana ↑

Substitution 5

90'

⚽

P. Sulc

3–2

90+6'

▮

Moussa Niakhaté

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Nice beat Lyon 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.04 to 0.60. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 29 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 16 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.60 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Bard (5'), P. Sulc (29'), S. Diop (35'), H. Boudaoui (55'), P. Sulc (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.29 units (Brier 0.229).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.88	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.12	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.37	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.84	—	53%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.63	—	58%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Home Win	2.56	—	31%	Cashed	+1.56	Cashed
Draw	3.65	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.80	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.26	—	78%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.25	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	—	31%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	57%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.88	—	31%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.07	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.29u	−13% ROI