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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football France Ligue 1 Toulouse — Nantes

Match Toulouse vs Nantes September 27, 2025

France   /   Ligue 1
Toulouse
Toulouse
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 17:00
2:2
Full-time
Nantes
Nantes
D L L W L Away · last 5
Stadium de Toulouse · Toulouse Referee Benoît Bastien, France
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 59% · book 1.82
Hit
Draw
Draw
AI 25% · book 3.78
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 17% · book 5.10
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
2.15 – 1.46
Δ +0.69
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
4 / 10
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This match features Toulouse with a clear home advantage and a stronger overall profile compared to Nantes, who have struggled to find consistency and scoring form on the road. Toulouse's attacking potential and home momentum suggest they are likely to control the game tempo and create more chances. Nantes' defensive solidity is decent but their offensive struggles away from home limit their threat. The model leans towards a home win with moderate goal scoring, favoring totals around 2.5 goals. Both teams scoring is less probable given Nantes' low scoring rate away, making BTTS No a reasonable angle. Double chance on Toulouse or draw offers a safer alternative given Nantes' occasional resilience.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · NAN 4-3-3
Subs used · TOU
46' Gboho ↑ · Emersonn
62' Casseres ↑ · Francis
76' Methalie ↑ · Kamanzi
86' Edjouma ↑ · Sidibe
Subs used · NAN
46' Benhattab ↑ · Camara
73' Hyun-Seok ↑ · Tabibou
73' Guirassy ↑ · Lahdo
84' Hyeok-Kyu ↑ · Lepenant
89' El Arabi ↑ · Abline

📊 Statistics

TOU 22 NAN
46%
Possession (%)
54%
2.15
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.46
20
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Target
2
8
Shots off Target
4
15
Shots Inside Box
7
1
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
1
18
Fouls
12
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

18 · 2 – 2
45'
M. Lahdo
0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
Y. Gboho ↓ · Emersonn ↑
Substitution 1
46'
46'
Y. Benhattab ↓ · A. Camara ↑
Substitution 1
Y. Gboho
Assist · A. Donnum · 1–1
47'
Aron Dønnum
Yellow Card
58'
58'
Anthony Lopes
Yellow Card
61'
L. Leroux
Assist · J. Lepenant · 1–2
C. Casseres ↓ · A. Francis ↑
Substitution 2
62'
66'
Kelvin Amian
Yellow Card
A. Donnum (P)
Penalty · 2–2
66'
Charlie Cresswell
Yellow Card
72'
73'
Hong Hyun-Seok ↓ · D. Tabibou ↑
Substitution 2
73'
B. Guirassy ↓ · M. Lahdo ↑
Substitution 3
D. Methalie ↓ · W. Kamanzi ↑
Substitution 3
76'
80'
Louis Leroux
Yellow Card
84'
Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ↓ · J. Lepenant ↑
Substitution 4
N. Edjouma ↓ · D. Sidibe ↑
Substitution 4
86'
89'
Y. El Arabi ↓ · M. Abline ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 4 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.82 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.78 25% Cashed +2.78 Cashed
Away Win 5.10 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.21 78% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
BTTS No 1.86 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.82 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.30 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.21 75% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Away Team Total Under 0.5 2.33 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each 4 W · 6 L −2.72u −27% ROI