Match Toulouse vs Nantes September 27, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

This match features Toulouse with a clear home advantage and a stronger overall profile compared to Nantes, who have struggled to find consistency and scoring form on the road. Toulouse's attacking potential and home momentum suggest they are likely to control the game tempo and create more chances. Nantes' defensive solidity is decent but their offensive struggles away from home limit their threat. The model leans towards a home win with moderate goal scoring, favoring totals around 2.5 goals. Both teams scoring is less probable given Nantes' low scoring rate away, making BTTS No a reasonable angle. Double chance on Toulouse or draw offers a safer alternative given Nantes' occasional resilience.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · NAN 4-3-3

TOU · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · NAN

20 Emersonn

Subs used · TOU

46'

Gboho ↑ ·

Emersonn ↓

62'

Casseres ↑ ·

Francis ↓

76'

Methalie ↑ ·

Kamanzi ↓

86'

Edjouma ↑ ·

Sidibe ↓

Subs used · NAN

46'

Benhattab ↑ ·

Camara ↓

73'

Hyun-Seok ↑ ·

Tabibou ↓

73'

Guirassy ↑ ·

Lahdo ↓

84'

Hyeok-Kyu ↑ ·

Lepenant ↓

89'

El Arabi ↑ ·

Abline ↓

📊 Statistics

TOU 2 – 2 NAN

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.15

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 2

45'

⚽

M. Lahdo

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Y. Gboho ↓ · Emersonn ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

Y. Benhattab ↓ · A. Camara ↑

Substitution 1

Y. Gboho

Assist · A. Donnum · 1–1

⚽

47'

Aron Dønnum

Yellow Card

▮

58'

▮

Anthony Lopes

Yellow Card

61'

⚽

L. Leroux

Assist · J. Lepenant · 1–2

C. Casseres ↓ · A. Francis ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

66'

▮

Kelvin Amian

Yellow Card

A. Donnum (P)

Penalty · 2–2

⚽

66'

Charlie Cresswell

Yellow Card

▮

72'

73'

⇄

Hong Hyun-Seok ↓ · D. Tabibou ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

B. Guirassy ↓ · M. Lahdo ↑

Substitution 3

D. Methalie ↓ · W. Kamanzi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

80'

▮

Louis Leroux

Yellow Card

84'

⇄

Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ↓ · J. Lepenant ↑

Substitution 4

N. Edjouma ↓ · D. Sidibe ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

89'

⇄

Y. El Arabi ↓ · M. Abline ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Toulouse and Nantes drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.15 to 1.46. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 12, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Lahdo (45'), Y. Gboho (47'), L. Leroux (61'), A. Donnum (66').

Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 4 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.72 units (Brier 0.259).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 4 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.82	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.78	—	25%	Cashed	+2.78	Cashed
Away Win	5.10	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.21	—	78%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
BTTS No	1.86	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.82	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.30	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5	1.21	—	75%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Away Team Total Under 0.5	2.33	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	4 W · 6 L	−2.72u	−27% ROI