Lorient enters this match with a fragile defensive record at home and a recent mixed form, while Monaco shows strong attacking capabilities and a solid defensive shape away from home. Monaco’s recent winning streak and overall strength suggest they are the clear favorites, especially given their efficiency in front of goal. The home side’s struggles to convert chances and defensive vulnerabilities make a Monaco win the most likely outcome. The game is expected to feature goals from both sides, with a good chance of finishing over 2.5 goals. Betting angles favor backing Monaco on the Asian Handicap and considering BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets for added value.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
LOR 3-4-2-1 · MON 3-5-2📊 Statistics
LOR 3 – 1 MON46%
Possession (%)
54%
2.52
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.14
19
Total Shots
5
8
Shots on Target
2
5
Shots off Target
3
12
Shots Inside Box
2
2
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
11
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
⏱ Match events
20 · 3 – 19'
▮
Thilo Kehrer
Yellow Card
21'
▮
Vanderson
Yellow Card
38'
▮
Thilo Kehrer
Yellow Card
38'
▮
Thilo Kehrer
Red Card
M. Bamba
Assist · A. Kouassi · 1–0
40'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Karim Dermane
Yellow Card
46'
46'
⇄
K. Diatta ↓ · Vanderson ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
F. Balogun ↓ · M. Biereth ↑
Substitution 2
Mohamed Bamba
Yellow Card
48'
J. Makengo ↓ · A. Tosin ↑
Substitution 1
62'
S. Soumano ↓ · M. Bamba ↑
Substitution 2
62'
65'
⇄
S. Idumbo ↓ · T. Minamino ↑
Substitution 3
65'
⇄
A. Fati ↓ · G. Ilenikhena ↑
Substitution 4
P. Pagis ↓ · D. Karim ↑
Substitution 3
72'
P. Pagis
Assist · S. Soumano · 2–0
76'
81'
⇄
P. Cabral ↓ · M. Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 5
P. Pagis
Assist · J. Makengo · 3–0
82'
N. Cadiou ↓ · A. Avom ↑
Substitution 4
83'
J. Mvuka Mugisha ↓ · T. Le Bris ↑
Substitution 5
83'
90'
⚽
A. Fati (P)
Penalty · 3–1
Full-time · 3 – 1
Match recap
Lorient beat Monaco 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.52 to 0.14. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 5, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: M. Bamba (40'), P. Pagis (76'), P. Pagis (82'), A. Fati (90'). Thilo Kehrer was sent off in the 38' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 6 landed and 4 missed, for a net +5.49 units (Brier 0.366).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
10 · 6 W · 4 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.61 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.61 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.57 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.57 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.21 | — | 85% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 1.29 | — | 78% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.12 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 5.12 | — | 14% | Cashed | +4.12 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.70 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 1.67 | — | 65% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -0.5 | 4.65 | — | 15% | Cashed | +3.65 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.42 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Total · 10 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 6 W · 4 L | +5.49u | +55% ROI |