Lecce vs Genoa — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Genoa enter this Serie A clash with a clear quality edge and stronger offensive potential, while Lecce rely on a solid defensive setup at home. Recent form slightly favors Genoa, but Lecce's home momentum and compact block could limit chances. Expect a tactical battle with Genoa pressing to exploit their attacking advantage.

Genoa's sharper attack vs Lecce's disciplined defense
Lecce's home resilience balancing quality gap
Moderate pace suggested by odds, hinting at controlled tempo

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.03	54%	+12.6%	Watch
Under 1.5	2.88	2.75	38%	+8.2%	Watch
Under 2.5	1.66	1.62	64%	+5.6%	Watch
Under 0.5	8.00	7.50	13%	+5.1%	Watch
BTTS No	1.73	1.67	59%	+2.0%	Watch
Under 3.5	1.22	1.20	82%	+0.3%	Watch
Draw	3.70	3.50	26%	−5.2%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.08	1.07	87%	−6.2%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.44	1.40	62%	−10.1%	Pass
Over 2.5	2.43	2.30	36%	−11.6%	Pass
BTTS Yes	2.15	2.10	41%	−11.8%	Pass
Double Chance 1X	1.20	1.17	72%	−13.6%	Pass
Home Win	1.82	1.75	46%	−15.6%	Pass
Over 3.5	4.33	4.33	18%	−22.8%	Pass

Double Chance X2

book 2.10 · fair 2.03 · 54%

+12.6%

Watch

Under 1.5

book 2.88 · fair 2.75 · 38%

+8.2%

Watch

Under 2.5

book 1.66 · fair 1.62 · 64%

+5.6%

Watch

Under 0.5

book 8.00 · fair 7.50 · 13%

+5.1%

Watch

BTTS No

book 1.73 · fair 1.67 · 59%

+2.0%

Watch

Under 3.5

book 1.22 · fair 1.20 · 82%

+0.3%

Watch

Draw

book 3.70 · fair 3.50 · 26%

−5.2%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.08 · fair 1.07 · 87%

−6.2%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.44 · fair 1.40 · 62%

−10.1%

Pass

Over 2.5

book 2.43 · fair 2.30 · 36%

−11.6%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 2.15 · fair 2.10 · 41%

−11.8%

Pass

Double Chance 1X

book 1.20 · fair 1.17 · 72%

−13.6%

Pass

Home Win

book 1.82 · fair 1.75 · 46%

−15.6%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 4.33 · fair 4.33 · 18%

−22.8%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

0.73

Goals Scored

1.11

1.35

Goals Conceded

1.35

0.79

Expected Goals (xG)

1.21

2.51

Shots on Target

3.84

4.38

Corners

3.62

41.84

Possession (%)

48.22

90.17

Efficiency index

95.19

55.73

Adjusted index

76.39

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

OFF · away

DEF · away

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Lecce wins when scoring first

75%

①

Genoa wins when scoring first

100%

⚽

Lecce BTTS rate · last 10

50%

⚽

Genoa BTTS rate · last 10

40%

↑

Lecce Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↑

Genoa Over 2.5 · last 10

40%

↩

Lecce comeback rate · last 10

↩

Genoa comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Lecce · last 10 at home

0–15 33%

16–30 17%

31–45 17%

46–60 0%

61–75 17%

76–90 17%

Genoa · last 10 away

0–15 0%

16–30 14%

31–45 14%

46–60 14%

61–75 43%

76–90 14%

Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.