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Home England Premier League Leeds — Manchester United

Predictions Leeds vs Manchester United January 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 12:30
1:1
Full-time
Manchester United
Manchester United
W W D W W Away · last 5
Elland Road · Leeds, West Yorkshire Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia
Home Win · LEE
28%
Best 2.75
Draw
26%
Best 3.35
Away Win · MUN
46%
Best 2.63
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 1.90
Fair odds
1.71
book 1.90 · +10.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 58% · EV +10.8%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.68
Show model details
Implied probability 37.3%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 28.1%
Odds 2.78
Show model details
Implied probability 36%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.56
Show model details
Implied probability 28.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 58.3%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 41.7%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 4.18
Show model details
Implied probability 23.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.9%
Odds 12.30
Show model details
Implied probability 8.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 39.3%
Odds 2.33
Show model details
Implied probability 42.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 45.8%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 28.1%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 71.9%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X
Probability 54.2%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
LEE – MUN @ 1.90
+10.8%
Edge
Forecast →