Hellas Verona vs AS Roma — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.05 — +14.3% better than the market.

Serie A Preview: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma

AS Roma arrives with clear momentum, boasting a strong recent run and a notable quality edge over Hellas Verona. The visitors' attacking prowess contrasts with Verona's defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting Roma's offense could find opportunities. However, Verona's home resilience and compact defensive setup might limit the goal flow, pointing to a tactical battle with a moderate tempo. Expect Roma to press for control while Verona aims to absorb pressure and counter.

Roma's superior form and offensive edge
Verona's defensive compactness at home
Moderate pace likely to keep scoring chances measured

Best bet of the night · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.05

AI 56% Implied 49% Value

+14.3%

Expected value

Why we like it. Line drifted 5.9 pp against our pick — use caution.

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Under 2.5	2.05	2.00	56%	+14.3%	Top pick
Under 3.5	1.36	1.36	76%	+3.4%	Watch
Away Win	1.35	1.30	75%	+1.6%	Watch
Double Chance X2	1.07	1.06	93%	−0.2%	Pass
BTTS No	1.67	1.60	60%	−0.4%	Pass
Draw	5.50	5.50	18%	−1.2%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	91%	−5.0%	Pass
BTTS Yes	2.27	2.23	40%	−8.4%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.28	1.22	69%	−11.2%	Pass
Double Chance 1X	3.50	3.45	25%	−13.5%	Pass
Over 2.5	1.90	1.80	44%	−15.9%	Pass
Over 3.5	3.20	3.00	24%	−23.3%	Pass
Home Win	11.00	10.50	7%	−25.9%	Pass

Under 2.5

book 2.05 · fair 2.00 · 56%

+14.3%

Top pick

Under 3.5

book 1.36 · fair 1.36 · 76%

+3.4%

Watch

Away Win

book 1.35 · fair 1.30 · 75%

+1.6%

Watch

Double Chance X2

book 1.07 · fair 1.06 · 93%

−0.2%

Pass

BTTS No

book 1.67 · fair 1.60 · 60%

−0.4%

Pass

Draw

book 5.50 · fair 5.50 · 18%

−1.2%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.05 · fair 1.04 · 91%

−5.0%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 2.27 · fair 2.23 · 40%

−8.4%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.28 · fair 1.22 · 69%

−11.2%

Pass

Double Chance 1X

book 3.50 · fair 3.45 · 25%

−13.5%

Pass

Over 2.5

book 1.90 · fair 1.80 · 44%

−15.9%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 3.20 · fair 3.00 · 24%

−23.3%

Pass

Home Win

book 11.00 · fair 10.50 · 7%

−25.9%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

0.68

Goals Scored

1.54

1.59

Goals Conceded

0.84

0.95

Expected Goals (xG)

1.39

3.73

Shots on Target

4.62

3.89

Corners

5.14

40.27

Possession (%)

Efficiency index

108.63

51.68

Adjusted index

108.13

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

OFF · away

DEF · away

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Hellas Verona wins when scoring first

①

AS Roma wins when scoring first

86%

⚽

Hellas Verona BTTS rate · last 10

40%

⚽

AS Roma BTTS rate · last 10

50%

↑

Hellas Verona Over 2.5 · last 10

20%

↑

AS Roma Over 2.5 · last 10

60%

↩

Hellas Verona comeback rate · last 10

↩

AS Roma comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Hellas Verona · last 10 at home

0–15 33%

16–30 33%

31–45 0%

46–60 0%

61–75 33%

76–90 0%

AS Roma · last 10 away

0–15 27%

16–30 13%

31–45 13%

46–60 7%

61–75 27%

76–90 13%

Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

D. Malen

ROM · Attacker

13 G · 0.84 g/90