Napoli vs Udinese — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Napoli Looks to Assert Dominance at Home

Napoli holds a clear quality edge over Udinese, boosted by a solid home defensive record and a sharper attack compared to Udinese's defense. Recent form favors Napoli slightly, with a home momentum that could pressure Udinese's compact block. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, suggesting Napoli’s pressing edge and set-piece threat might be decisive.

Napoli’s strong home defense vs Udinese’s attack
Home momentum and tactical pressing advantage
Moderate pace with potential for controlled scoring

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Under 1.5	3.75	3.50	29%	+7.6%	Watch
Under 2.5	1.98	1.91	53%	+5.8%	Watch
Home Win	1.54	1.49	68%	+4.4%	Watch
Double Chance 1X	1.13	1.11	90%	+1.7%	Watch
Under 3.5	1.36	1.33	74%	+0.9%	Watch
Draw	4.50	4.27	22%	−0.2%	Pass
Under 0.5	11.00	11.00	9%	−2.4%	Pass
BTTS No	1.80	1.76	53%	−3.7%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.05	1.05	91%	−4.3%	Pass
BTTS Yes	2.00	1.98	47%	−7.0%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.29	1.28	71%	−8.0%	Pass
Over 2.5	1.96	1.91	47%	−8.7%	Pass
Double Chance X2	2.67	2.61	32%	−14.1%	Pass
Over 3.5	3.25	3.20	26%	−16.1%	Pass
Away Win	8.00	7.00	10%	−19.9%	Pass

Under 1.5

book 3.75 · fair 3.50 · 29%

+7.6%

Watch

Under 2.5

book 1.98 · fair 1.91 · 53%

+5.8%

Watch

Home Win

book 1.54 · fair 1.49 · 68%

+4.4%

Watch

Double Chance 1X

book 1.13 · fair 1.11 · 90%

+1.7%

Watch

Under 3.5

book 1.36 · fair 1.33 · 74%

+0.9%

Watch

Draw

book 4.50 · fair 4.27 · 22%

−0.2%

Pass

Under 0.5

book 11.00 · fair 11.00 · 9%

−2.4%

Pass

BTTS No

book 1.80 · fair 1.76 · 53%

−3.7%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.05 · fair 1.05 · 91%

−4.3%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 2.00 · fair 1.98 · 47%

−7.0%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.29 · fair 1.28 · 71%

−8.0%

Pass

Over 2.5

book 1.96 · fair 1.91 · 47%

−8.7%

Pass

Double Chance X2

book 2.67 · fair 2.61 · 32%

−14.1%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 3.25 · fair 3.20 · 26%

−16.1%

Pass

Away Win

book 8.00 · fair 7.00 · 10%

−19.9%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

1.54

Goals Scored

1.22

0.97

Goals Conceded

1.27

1.31

Expected Goals (xG)

1.11

4.70

Shots on Target

3.86

5.54

Corners

4.51

58.70

Possession (%)

45.95

110.01

Efficiency index

107.72

106.95

Adjusted index

84.76

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

OFF · away

DEF · away

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Napoli wins when scoring first

100%

①

Udinese wins when scoring first

67%

⚽

Napoli BTTS rate · last 10

40%

⚽

Udinese BTTS rate · last 10

20%

↑

Napoli Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↑

Udinese Over 2.5 · last 10

30%

↩

Napoli comeback rate · last 10

↩

Udinese comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Napoli · last 10 at home

0–15 27%

16–30 0%

31–45 20%

46–60 27%

61–75 13%

76–90 13%

Udinese · last 10 away

0–15 0%

16–30 18%

31–45 12%

46–60 24%

61–75 18%

76–90 29%

Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

R. Højlund

NAP · Attacker

11 G · 0.37 g/90

S. McTominay

NAP · Midfielder

10 G · 0.33 g/90

K. Davis

UDI · Attacker

10 G · 0.45 g/90