Match Pisa vs Napoli May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.09 — +11.0% better than the market.

Napoli arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, while Pisa struggles with a tough run of losses. Napoli's attacking threat should challenge Pisa's defense, which has been vulnerable. The home side's compact block might limit goals, but Napoli's pressing and superior offensive firepower suggest they control the pace.

Napoli's offensive edge against Pisa's defense
Home side's poor form vs away momentum
Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.09 ✗ Lost

AI 53% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PIS 3-5-2 · NAP 3-4-3

PIS · 3-5-2 3-4-3 · NAP

32 Moreo

Subs used · PIS

60'

Meister ↑ ·

Stojilkovic ↓

61'

Piccinini ↑ ·

Akinsanmiro ↓

70'

Toure ↑ ·

Calabresi ↓

70'

Cuadrado ↑ ·

Leris ↓

71'

Vural ↑ ·

Moreo ↓

Subs used · NAP

59'

De Bruyne ↑ ·

Elmas ↓

59'

Olivera ↑ ·

Buongiorno ↓

79'

Gutierrez ↑ ·

Spinazzola ↓

80'

Vergara ↑ ·

Santos ↓

88'

Mazzocchi ↑ ·

Di Lorenzo ↓

📊 Statistics

PIS 0 – 3 NAP

24%

Possession (%)

76%

0.80

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

72%

Pass Accuracy (%)

92%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 0 – 3

21'

⚽

S. McTominay

Assist · R. Hojlund · 0–1

27'

⚽

A. Rrahmani

Assist · E. Elmas · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

A. Calabresi

Yellow Card

▮

53'

▮

E. Elmas

Yellow Card

59'

⇄

K. De Bruyne ↓ · E. Elmas ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

M. Olivera ↓ · A. Buongiorno ↑

Substitution 2

H. Meister ↓ · F. Stojilkovic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

G. Piccinini ↓ · E. Akinsanmiro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

I. Toure ↓ · A. Calabresi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

J. Cuadrado ↓ · M. Leris ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

I. Vural ↓ · S. Moreo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

71'

78'

▮

Alisson Santos

Yellow Card

A. Caracciolo

Yellow Card

▮

78'

79'

⇄

M. Gutierrez ↓ · L. Spinazzola ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

A. Vergara ↓ · Alisson Santos ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

P. Mazzocchi ↓ · G. Di Lorenzo ↑

Substitution 5

90+2'

⚽

R. Hojlund

Assist · P. Mazzocchi · 0–3

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Napoli won 3–0 away at Pisa. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 76% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 92% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 4, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.08 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. McTominay (21'), A. Rrahmani (27'), R. Hojlund (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.00 units (Brier 0.091).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.09	2.00	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.80	1.70	56%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.15	2.07	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.86	1.80	47%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Away Win	1.43	1.36	72%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	4.00	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	1.36	74%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.10	1.08	92%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.10	3.05	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.12	1.10	72%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	3.00	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	12.05	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.16	4.88	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.03	91%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	1.23	72%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	9.00	9.09	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	6.40	6.49	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.00u	−35% ROI