Match AS Roma vs Lazio May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.98 — +7.1% better than the market.

Serie A Derby Preview

AS Roma enters this derby with clear home momentum, boasting a strong recent run and a notable edge in quality and attacking threat. Their compact defensive block should challenge Lazio’s less potent offense, while Roma’s pressing and set-piece threat add further weight. Lazio’s form and lower scoring potential suggest a cautious game, likely with limited goals and a home side favored to control the tempo.

Roma’s home edge and recent form favor control
Defensive solidity vs Lazio’s modest attack
Moderate pace hints at a tactical, measured clash

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.98 ✓ Cashed

AI 54% Implied 51% +0.98u

+98%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · LAZ 4-3-3

ROM · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · LAZ

14 Malen

Subs used · ROM

37'

Rensch ↑ ·

Ndicka ↓

46'

El Shaarawy ↑ ·

Pisilli ↓

83'

Soule ↑ ·

Malen ↓

83'

Ziolkowski ↑ ·

Mancini ↓

88'

Dovbyk ↑ ·

Dybala ↓

Subs used · LAZ

62'

Maldini ↑ ·

Dia ↓

62'

Dele-Bashiru ↑ ·

Taylor ↓

71'

Isaksen ↑ ·

Cancellieri ↓

79'

Pedro ↑ ·

Noslin ↓

79'

Lazzari ↑ ·

Marusic ↓

📊 Statistics

ROM 2 – 0 LAZ

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.20

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.71

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 2 – 0

21'

▮

K. Taylor

Yellow Card

D. Rensch ↓ · E. Ndicka ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

37'

G. Mancini

Assist · N. Pisilli · 1–0

⚽

40'

M. Hermoso

Yellow Card

▮

42'

▮

M. Cancellieri

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

S. El Shaarawy ↓ · N. Pisilli ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

62'

⇄

D. Maldini ↓ · B. Dia ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

F. Dele-Bashiru ↓ · K. Taylor ↑

Substitution 2

64'

▮

N. Tavares

Yellow Card

G. Mancini

Assist · P. Dybala · 2–0

⚽

66'

Wesley Franca

Red Card

▮

70'

▮

N. Rovella

Red Card

71'

⇄

G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

Pedro ↓ · T. Noslin ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

M. Lazzari ↓ · A. Marusic ↑

Substitution 5

M. Soule ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

J. Ziolkowski ↓ · G. Mancini ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

S. El Shaarawy

Yellow Card

▮

85'

A. Dovbyk ↓ · P. Dybala ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

AS Roma beat Lazio 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Mancini (40'), G. Mancini (66'). Wesley Franca was sent off in the 70' minute. N. Rovella was sent off in the 70' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.55 units (Brier 0.093).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.98	1.91	54%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	1.79	54%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.96	1.90	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	1.95	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.58	2.61	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.57	1.50	67%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	3.72	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	1.10	89%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.20	1.15	67%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.40	10.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	1.36	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Draw	4.50	4.27	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	91%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	1.28	71%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	3.19	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.50	6.76	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.60	5.26	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.55u	−33% ROI