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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — Bologna

Predictions Napoli vs Bologna May 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 18:45
2:3
Full-time
Bologna
Bologna
L D W W D Away · last 5
Referee M. Piccinini
Home Win · NAP
66%
Best 1.59
Draw
22%
Best 4.37
Away Win · BOL
12%
Best 6.40
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.75
Fair odds
3.38
book 3.75 · +11.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +11.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.32
Show model details
Implied probability 23.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 12%
Odds 6.20
Show model details
Implied probability 16.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 29.6%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.2%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 70.4%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24.4%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.6%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 12%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 34.1%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – BOL @ 3.75
+11.0%
Edge
Forecast →