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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — Bologna

Predictions Napoli vs Bologna May 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 18:45
2:3
Full-time
Bologna
Bologna
L D W W D Away · last 5
Referee M. Piccinini
Home Win · NAP
66%
Best 1.59
Draw
22%
Best 4.37
Away Win · BOL
12%
Best 6.40
Value pick
Home Win
@ 1.61
Fair odds
1.52
book 1.61 · +6.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 66% · EV +6.1%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.32
Show model details
Implied probability 23.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 12%
Odds 6.20
Show model details
Implied probability 16.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 29.6%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.2%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 70.4%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24.4%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.6%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 12%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 34.1%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.