Match Inter vs AS Roma April 5, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.00 — +12.3% better than the market.

Inter arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a notable quality edge and a pressing advantage at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Their offensive strength is well-matched against Roma's defense, suggesting chances to break through. Roma's recent form shows inconsistency, while Inter's slightly better run hints at control in midfield battles.

Inter's compact block and set-piece threat could exploit Roma's defensive gaps.
Roma may struggle to keep pace with Inter's attacking rhythm.
Expect a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals given both sides' tendencies.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.00 ✓ Cashed

AI 56% Implied 50% +1.00u

+100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · ROM 3-4-2-1

INT · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · ROM

10 Martínez ⚽

Subs used · INT

58'

Darmian ↑ ·

Bastoni ↓

58'

Bonny ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

66'

Sucic ↑ ·

Calhanoglu ↓

67'

Esposito ↑ ·

Thuram ↓

76'

Mkhitaryan ↑ ·

Zielinski ↓

Subs used · ROM

46'

Ghilardi ↑ ·

Mancini ↓

58'

Tsimikas ↑ ·

Rensch ↓

64'

El Shaarawy ↑ ·

Soule ↓

81'

Ziolkowski ↑ ·

Hermoso ↓

📊 Statistics

INT 5 – 2 ROM

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.96

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 5 – 2

L. Martinez

Assist · M. Thuram · 1–0

⚽

40'

⚽

G. Mancini

Assist · D. Rensch · 1–1

H. Calhanoglu

Assist · P. Zielinski · 2–1

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 1

46'

⇄

D. Ghilardi ↓ · G. Mancini ↑

Substitution 1

L. Martinez

Assist · M. Thuram · 3–1

⚽

52'

M. Thuram

Assist · H. Calhanoglu · 4–1

⚽

55'

M. Darmian ↓ · A. Bastoni ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

A. Bonny ↓ · L. Martinez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

⇄

K. Tsimikas ↓ · D. Rensch ↑

Substitution 2

60'

▮

Niccolò Pisilli

Yellow Card

N. Barella

5–1

⚽

63'

64'

⇄

S. El Shaarawy ↓ · M. Soule ↑

Substitution 3

P. Sucic ↓ · H. Calhanoglu ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

66'

F. Esposito ↓ · M. Thuram ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

67'

70'

⚽

L. Pellegrini

5–2

H. Mkhitaryan ↓ · P. Zielinski ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

76'

81'

⇄

J. Ziolkowski ↓ · M. Hermoso ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 5 – 2

Match recap

Inter beat AS Roma 5–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 9, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 1.17 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: L. Martinez (1'), G. Mancini (40'), H. Calhanoglu (45'), L. Martinez (52'), M. Thuram (55'), N. Barella (63'), L. Pellegrini (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.06 units (Brier 0.133).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.00	—	56%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Home Win	1.68	—	64%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	53%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.96	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.38	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.45	—	34%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	79%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	87%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.27	—	64%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	93%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	4.08	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.74	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.07	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.06u	−18% ROI