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Home › Italy › Serie A › Atalanta — Hellas Verona

Atalanta vs Hellas Verona 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 L D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 22 Mar · 14:00
1:0
Full-time
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
D D L D L Away · last 5
New Balance Arena · Bergamo Referee G. Ayroldi
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 45% · book 2.23 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 1.99 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 50% · book 1.96 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.02 – 1.11
Δ −0.09
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.43 — +3.3% better than the market.

Atalanta hosts Verona with a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent mixed form. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Verona's struggles at the back, giving Atalanta a pressing advantage. Verona's attack faces a tough test against a compact home defense, while Atalanta's offensive threat should find space against a less resilient away line. The match hints at a moderate pace, favoring a controlled game with chances for Atalanta to capitalize.

  • Home defensive strength vs away attack
  • Recent form favors Atalanta's consistency
  • Moderate tempo likely to suit home control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.43 ✓ Cashed
AI 72% Implied 70% +0.43u
+43%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · VER 3-5-2
ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · VER 29 Carnesecchi 42 Scalvini 19 Djimsiti 23 Kolašinac 77 Zappacosta ⚽ 15 Roon 13 Éderson 47 Bernasconi 17 Ketelaere 59 Zalewski 90 Krstović 1 Montipò 15 Nelsson 5 Edmundsson 6 Valentini 7 Belghali 11 Akpro 63 Gagliardini 21 Harroui 3 Frese 18 Bowie 16 Orban
Subs used · ATA
63' Raspadori ↑ · Zalewski ↓
63' Pasalic ↑ · Ederson ↓
76' Musah ↑ · De Ketelaere ↓
76' Hien ↑ · Kolasinac ↓
88' Samardzic ↑ · De Roon ↓
Subs used · VER
46' Oyegoke ↑ · Frese ↓
66' Musrati ↑ · Gagliardini ↓
66' Suslov ↑ · Harroui ↓
78' Sarr ↑ · Bowie ↓
85' Bernede ↑ · Akpa Akpro ↓

Statistics

ATA 1 – 0 VER
60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.02
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.11
12
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
5
2
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
16
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
16'
▮
Andrias Edmundsson
Yellow Card
D. Zappacosta
1–0
⚽
37'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
D. Oyegoke ↓ · M. Frese ↑
Substitution 1
54'
▮
Nicolás Valentini
Yellow Card
63'
▮
Roberto Gagliardini
Yellow Card
G. Raspadori ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
M. Pasalic ↓ · Ederson ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
66'
⇄
Al Musrati ↓ · R. Gagliardini ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
T. Suslov ↓ · A. Harroui ↑
Substitution 3
Y. Musah ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
I. Hien ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
78'
⇄
A. Sarr ↓ · K. Bowie ↑
Substitution 4
Isak Hien
Yellow Card
▮
83'
85'
⇄
A. Bernede ↓ · J. Akpa Akpro ↑
Substitution 5
L. Samardzic ↓ · M. De Roon ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Zappacosta (37').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.40 units (Brier 0.147).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.23 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.99 — 50% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.96 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.73 — 55% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Home Win 1.43 — 72% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 92% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.16 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.12 — 72% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 92% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.37 — 72% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Draw 4.89 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.30 — 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.40 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.80 — 25% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Under 0.5 12.00 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 9.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.40 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.40u −20% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
ATA – VER @ 1.43
+3.3%
Edge
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