Match Inter vs Atalanta March 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.80 — +10.8% better than the market.

Inter arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive setup that challenges Atalanta's attack. The home side's offensive edge over Atalanta's defense suggests they can create quality chances, while recent form favors Inter's consistency. Expect a controlled tempo with Inter pressing high and exploiting set-piece opportunities.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
Inter's recent winning rhythm
Moderate pace hinting at tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · ATA 3-4-2-1

INT · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · ATA

94 Esposito ⚽

Subs used · INT

46'

Mkhitaryan ↑ ·

Sucic ↓

65'

Henrique ↑ ·

Dimarco ↓

65'

Bonny ↑ ·

Esposito ↓

76'

Frattesi ↑ ·

Barella ↓

80'

de Vrij ↑ ·

Akanji ↓

Subs used · ATA

51'

Ederson ↑ ·

Samardzic ↓

51'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Scamacca ↓

65'

Sulemana ↑ ·

Zalewski ↓

65'

Hien ↑ ·

Kolasinac ↓

76'

De Ketelaere ↑ ·

De Roon ↓

📊 Statistics

INT 1 – 1 ATA

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.58

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 1

Petar Sučić

Yellow Card

▮

21'

▮

Sead Kolašinac

Yellow Card

F. Esposito

Assist · N. Barella · 1–0

⚽

26'

Half-time · 1 – 0

H. Mkhitaryan ↓ · P. Sucic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

51'

⇄

Ederson ↓ · L. Samardzic ↑

Substitution 1

51'

⇄

N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑

Substitution 2

Carlos Augusto

Yellow Card

▮

59'

Luis Henrique ↓ · F. Dimarco ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

A. Bonny ↓ · F. Esposito ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

⇄

K. Sulemana ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑

Substitution 3

65'

⇄

I. Hien ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑

Substitution 4

D. Frattesi ↓ · N. Barella ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

⇄

C. De Ketelaere ↓ · M. De Roon ↑

Substitution 5

S. de Vrij ↓ · M. Akanji ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

82'

⚽

N. Krstovic

1–1

90+5'

▮

Charles De Ketelaere

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Inter and Atalanta drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.58 to 1.08. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Esposito (26'), N. Krstovic (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.68 units (Brier 0.209).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.80	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.84	—	57%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
BTTS No	2.06	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.62	—	33%	Cashed	+1.62	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.17	—	38%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.93	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.59	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	88%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	60%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.23	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	82%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.76	—	21%	Cashed	+3.76	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.10	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.80	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.55	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.68u	−4% ROI