Match Sassuolo vs Atalanta March 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.06 — +10.5% better than the market.

Atalanta enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger offensive profile, suggesting they can challenge Sassuolo’s compact defense effectively. Sassuolo’s home momentum is notable, but Atalanta’s sharper attack and slightly better recent form hint at a competitive, possibly tight encounter. Expect a balanced pace with tactical discipline from both sides.

Atalanta’s offensive pressure vs Sassuolo’s defense
Home side’s recent winning streak
Moderate tempo likely to favor structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.06 ✗ Lost

AI 54% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAS 4-3-3 · ATA 3-4-2-1

SAS · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · ATA

45 Laurienté

Subs used · SAS

73'

Nzola ↑ ·

Berardi ↓

73'

Lipani ↑ ·

Matic ↓

74'

Fadera ↑ ·

Lauriente ↓

79'

Iannoni ↑

89'

Doig ↑ ·

Kone ↓

Subs used · ATA

46'

Sulemana ↑ ·

Bernasconi ↓

46'

Zappacosta ↑ ·

Bellanova ↓

46'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Scamacca ↓

67'

Musah ↑ ·

Zalewski ↓

76'

Hien ↑ ·

Djimsiti ↓

📊 Statistics

SAS 2 – 1 ATA

24%

Possession (%)

76%

1.52

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.98

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

69%

Pass Accuracy (%)

92%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 1

Jay Idzes

Yellow Card

▮

12'

Andrea Pinamonti

Red Card

▮

16'

21'

▮

Lorenzo Bernasconi

Yellow Card

I. Kone

Assist · A. Lauriente · 1–0

⚽

23'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

K. Sulemana ↓ · L. Bernasconi ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

D. Zappacosta ↓ · R. Bellanova ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑

Substitution 3

Nemanja Matić

Yellow Card

▮

57'

58'

▮

Nicola Zalewski

Yellow Card

67'

⇄

Y. Musah ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑

Substitution 4

K. Thorstvedt

Assist · A. Lauriente · 2–0

⚽

69'

M. Nzola ↓ · D. Berardi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

73'

L. Lipani ↓ · N. Matic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

A. Fadera ↓ · A. Lauriente ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

76'

⇄

I. Hien ↓ · B. Djimsiti ↑

Substitution 5

E. Iannoni ↓ ·

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

88'

⚽

Y. Musah

Assist · D. Zappacosta · 2–1

J. Doig ↓ · I. Kone ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Sassuolo beat Atalanta 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 76% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.98 to 1.52. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 7, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Kone (23'), K. Thorstvedt (69'), Y. Musah (88'). Andrea Pinamonti was sent off in the 16' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.71 units (Brier 0.259).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.02	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.06	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.18	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.93	—	46%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	51%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.90	—	43%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	—	74%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.44	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.20	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.30	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	—	72%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.95	—	18%	Cashed	+1.95	Cashed
Home Win	4.01	—	18%	Cashed	+3.01	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.71u	−4% ROI