Match Parma vs Hellas Verona February 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.60 — +9.6% better than the market.

Parma hosts Verona in a tightly matched Serie A clash where defensive solidity stands out. Parma's compact backline and home momentum contrast with Verona's slightly sharper attack, but both sides have struggled for consistent form recently. The pace is likely to be moderate, favoring a cautious approach with few clear-cut chances.

Parma's defensive discipline may frustrate Verona's offense.
Verona's recent away struggles limit their threat.
Low-scoring game expected given both sides' conservative tactics.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.60 ✗ Lost

AI 69% Implied 63% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAR 3-5-2 · VER 3-5-2

PAR · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · VER

7 Strefezza

Subs used · PAR

46'

Ondrejka ↑ ·

Valenti ↓

62'

Nicolussi Caviglia ↑ ·

Keita ↓

70'

Oristanio ↑ ·

Sorensen ↓

90+4'

Ordonez ↑ ·

Strefezza ↓

Subs used · VER

20'

Akpa Akpro ↑ ·

Belghali ↓

62'

Sarr ↑ ·

Bowie ↓

79'

Serdar ↑ ·

Niasse ↓

79'

Slotsager ↑ ·

Harroui ↓

📊 Statistics

PAR 2 – 1 VER

76%

Possession (%)

24%

1.70

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.91

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

66%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

A. Bernabe

Assist · M. Keita · 1–0

⚽

11'

▮

Gift Orban

Red Card

20'

⇄

J. Akpa Akpro ↓ · R. Belghali ↑

Substitution 1

Alessandro Circati

Yellow Card

▮

41'

43'

⚽

A. Harroui (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

J. Ondrejka ↓ · L. Valenti ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Lautaro Valenti

Yellow Card

▮

45+2'

H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↓ · M. Keita ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

⇄

A. Sarr ↓ · K. Bowie ↑

Substitution 2

G. Oristanio ↓ · O. Sorensen ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

79'

⇄

S. Serdar ↓ · C. Niasse ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

T. Slotsager ↓ · A. Harroui ↑

Substitution 4

86'

▮

Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro

Yellow Card

M. Pellegrino

Assist · H. Nicolussi Caviglia · 2–1

⚽

90'

C. Ordonez ↓ · G. Strefezza ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+4'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Parma beat Hellas Verona 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 76% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.91. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 4, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Bernabe (4'), A. Harroui (43'), M. Pellegrino (90'). Gift Orban was sent off in the 11' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.05 units (Brier 0.212).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.60	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.79	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.74	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.47	—	39%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.57	—	32%	Cashed	+1.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.08	—	39%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.44	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.66	—	39%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.65	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	70%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Draw	3.00	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.52	—	58%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	86%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.12	—	85%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.05u	−18% ROI