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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cagliari — Lecce

Cagliari vs Lecce 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cagliari
Cagliari
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Mon 16 Feb · 19:45
0:2
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Unipol Domus · Cagliari Referee Ermanno Feliciani, Italy
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 66% · book 1.70 ✓
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 46% · book 2.63 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 53% · book 2.24 ✗
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
1.01 – 1.35
Δ −0.34
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.70 — +11.5% better than the market.

Cagliari arrives with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Lecce. The home side’s attacking threat is more pronounced against Lecce’s leaky defense, suggesting chances to capitalize on set-pieces and quick transitions. Recent form favors Cagliari slightly, while the match pace hints at a controlled tempo, likely limiting goal-scoring opportunities.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Better recent form and home advantage
  • Moderate tempo likely to keep scoring in check

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.70 ✓ Cashed
AI 66% Implied 59% +0.70u
+70%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAG 5-4-1 · LEC 4-3-3
CAG · 5-4-1 4-3-3 · LEC 1 Caprile 28 Zappa 32 Pedro 26 Mina 33 Obert 3 Idrissi 2 Palestra 8 Adopo 25 Sulemana 94 Esposito 30 Pavoletti 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 4 Gaspar 44 Gabriel 25 Gallo 16 Gandelman ⚽ 20 Ramadani ⚽ 29 Coulibaly 50 Pierotti 99 Cheddira 23 Sottil
Subs used · CAG
57' Mazzitelli ↑ · Zappa ↓
57' Kilicsoy ↑ · Pavoletti ↓
79' Trepy ↑ · Obert ↓
Subs used · LEC
80' Ndaba ↑ · Sottil ↓
80' Stulic ↑ · Cheddira ↓
86' Siebert ↑ · Pierotti ↓
86' Ngom ↑ · Gandelman ↓
90+2' Fofana ↑ · Coulibaly ↓

Statistics

CAG 0 – 2 LEC
59%
Possession (%)
41%
1.01
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
11
Total Shots
13
0
Shots on Target
4
8
Shots off Target
3
9
Shots Inside Box
12
8
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
14
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

10 · 0 – 2
Half-time · 0 – 0
L. Mazzitelli ↓ · G. Zappa ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
S. Kilicsoy ↓ · L. Pavoletti ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
65'
⚽
O. Gandelman
Assist · R. Sottil · 0–1
76'
⚽
Y. Ramadani
Assist · L. Coulibaly · 0–2
Y. Trepy ↓ · A. Obert ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
80'
⇄
C. Ndaba ↓ · R. Sottil ↑
Substitution 1
80'
⇄
N. Stulic ↓ · W. Cheddira ↑
Substitution 2
86'
⇄
J. Siebert ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑
Substitution 3
86'
⇄
O. Ngom ↓ · O. Gandelman ↑
Substitution 4
90+2'
⇄
S. Fofana ↓ · L. Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Lecce won 2–0 away at Cagliari. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2.

On the scoresheet: O. Gandelman (65'), Y. Ramadani (76').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.46 units (Brier 0.225).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.70 — 66% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.63 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.24 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.73 — 47% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.21 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.65 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.71 — 19% Cashed +1.71 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.53 — 72% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Under 0.5 7.00 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.29 — 81% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.19 — 88% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Draw 3.20 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.58 — 54% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.51 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.13 — 82% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Away Win 3.97 — 19% Cashed +2.97 Cashed
Over 3.5 5.40 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.46u −9% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
CAG – LEC @ 1.70
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →