Match West Ham vs Brighton December 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.15 — +12.7% better than the market.

Brighton arrive with a clear quality edge and a more potent attack, while West Ham struggles to find form at home. Brighton's defensive solidity and sharper offensive threat suggest they can control the game tempo, especially given West Ham's recent poor results. The home side's defensive resilience might keep the scoreline tight, but Brighton's pressing and transitional play could unlock chances.

Brighton's superior overall strength and attacking edge
West Ham's recent home struggles and low scoring
Potential for a controlled pace with tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.15 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 47% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WES 4-2-3-1 · BRI 4-2-3-1

WES · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BRI

9 Wilson

Subs used · WES

45+3'

Mavropanos ↑ ·

Todibo ↓

63'

Summerville ↑ ·

Wilson ↓

82'

Soucek ↑ ·

Magassa ↓

83'

Kante ↑ ·

Paqueta ↓

83'

Mayers ↑ ·

Walker-Peters ↓

Subs used · BRI

58'

Gruda ↑ ·

Minteh ↓

58'

Mitoma ↑ ·

De Cuyper ↓

72'

Rutter ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

72'

Hinshelwood ↑ ·

Milner ↓

83'

Kostoulas ↑ ·

Welbeck ↓

📊 Statistics

WES 2 – 2 BRI

39%

Possession (%)

61%

2.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.85

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 2 – 2

J. Bowen

Assist · Lucas Paqueta · 1–0

⚽

10'

Jarrod Bowen

Yellow Card

▮

13'

32'

⚽

D. Welbeck (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Mateus Fernandes

Yellow Card

▮

37'

▮

Danny Welbeck

Yellow Card

42'

▮

James Milner

Yellow Card

Max Kilman

Yellow Card

▮

45'

Lucas Paqueta (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

45'

45+2'

▮

Lewis Dunk

Yellow Card

K. Mavropanos ↓ · J. Todibo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45+3'

Half-time · 2 – 1

58'

⇄

B. Gruda ↓ · Y. Minteh ↑

Substitution 1

58'

⇄

K. Mitoma ↓ · M. De Cuyper ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⚽

J. Veltman

2–2

C. Summerville ↓ · C. Wilson ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

72'

⇄

G. Rutter ↓ · D. Gomez ↑

Substitution 3

72'

⇄

J. Hinshelwood ↓ · J. Milner ↑

Substitution 4

T. Soucek ↓ · S. Magassa ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

M. Kante ↓ · Lucas Paqueta ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

E. Mayers ↓ · K. Walker-Peters ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

⇄

C. Kostoulas ↓ · D. Welbeck ↑

Substitution 5

84'

▮

Charalampos Kostoulas

Yellow Card

90+3'

▮

Jan Paul van Hecke

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

West Ham and Brighton drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.85 to 2.12. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 6 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Bowen (10'), D. Welbeck (32'), Lucas Paqueta (45'), J. Veltman (61').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.49 units (Brier 0.225).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.24	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.38	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.15	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.81	—	48%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.60	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	50%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.75	—	47%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.48	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.45	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.38	—	78%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.90	—	27%	Cashed	+1.90	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.70	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	72%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	3.36	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.49u	−9% ROI