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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — Fiorentina

Match Napoli vs Fiorentina January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats

Italy   /   Serie A
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 31 Jan · 17:00
2:1
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
Referee Federico La Penna, Italy
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.82 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.86 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.14 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.91 – 1.36
Δ +0.55
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Napoli holds a clear quality edge over Fiorentina, backed by a strong home defensive record and a slight attacking advantage. Despite Napoli's mixed recent form, their home momentum and tactical solidity should challenge Fiorentina's less consistent away performances. Fiorentina's resilience and pressing could test Napoli's defense, but the home side's compact block and set-piece threat likely tilt control their way.

  • Napoli's home defensive strength versus Fiorentina's attack
  • Recent form favors Fiorentina but Napoli's home edge remains
  • Moderate pace expected, balancing attacking intent and defensive caution

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NAP 3-4-2-1 · FIO 4-1-4-1
NAP · 3-4-2-1 4-1-4-1 · FIO 1 Meret 22 Lorenzo 4 Buongiorno 5 Jesus 3 Gutiérrez ⚽ 68 Lobotka 8 McTominay 37 Spinazzola 26 Vergara ⚽ 20 Elmas 19 Højlund 43 Gea 2 Dodô 15 Comuzzo 5 Pongračić 21 Gosens 44 Fagioli 19 Solomon ⚽ 80 Fabbian 4 Brescianini 10 Guðmundsson 91 Piccoli
Subs used · NAP
30' Olivera ↑ · Di Lorenzo ↓
84' Giovane ↑ · Vergara ↓
90' Lukaku ↑ · Hojlund ↓
Subs used · FIO
46' Mandragora ↑ · Fabbian ↓
70' Ranieri ↑ · Gosens ↓
70' Kean ↑ · Brescianini ↓
71' Parisi ↑ · Solomon ↓
79' Fazzini ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓

📊 Statistics

NAP 2 – 1 FIO
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.91
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.36
20
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Target
5
6
Shots off Target
8
14
Shots Inside Box
12
4
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
2
21
Fouls
13
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
1
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4

⏱ Match events

13 · 2 – 1
A. Vergara
Assist · A. Meret · 1–0
⚽
11'
M. Olivera ↓ · G. Di Lorenzo ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
30'
44'
▮
Giovanni Fabbian
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
R. Mandragora ↓ · G. Fabbian ↑
Substitution 1
M. Gutierrez
Assist · A. Vergara · 2–0
⚽
49'
Alessandro Buongiorno
Yellow Card
▮
54'
57'
⚽
M. Solomon
2–1
70'
⇄
L. Ranieri ↓ · R. Gosens ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⇄
M. Kean ↓ · M. Brescianini ↑
Substitution 3
71'
⇄
F. Parisi ↓ · M. Solomon ↑
Substitution 4
79'
⇄
J. Fazzini ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 5
Giovane ↓ · A. Vergara ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
84'
R. Lukaku ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Napoli beat Fiorentina 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.91 to 1.36. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 15, 6 on target.

On the scoresheet: A. Vergara (11'), M. Gutierrez (49'), M. Solomon (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.81 units (Brier 0.114).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.82 — 62% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.86 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.14 — 46% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.00 — 49% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.21 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.20 — 87% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.28 — 62% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 — 75% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 — 91% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.36 — 72% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.90 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.80 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.90 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.81u −28% ROI