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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — Sassuolo

Napoli vs Sassuolo 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 17:00
1:0
Full-time
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
D W L L L Away · last 5
Referee Francesco Fourneau, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.89 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 43% · book 2.29 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.67 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.58 – 0.96
Δ −0.38
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.49 — +5.1% better than the market.

Napoli Looks to Assert Dominance at Home

Napoli holds a clear quality edge over Sassuolo, supported by a strong home momentum and a pressing edge in attack versus Sassuolo's defense. Their recent form shows resilience with key wins, contrasting Sassuolo's struggles. Expect Napoli's compact block and efficient transitions to challenge Sassuolo's less consistent defense. The game hints at a moderate pace, favoring Napoli's control and set-piece threat.

  • Napoli's home advantage and superior form
  • Effective offensive pressure against Sassuolo's defense
  • Moderate tempo suits Napoli's tactical setup

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.49 ✓ Cashed
AI 71% Implied 67% +0.49u
+49%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NAP 3-4-2-1 · SAS 4-3-3
NAP · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · SAS 32 Milinković-Savić 31 Beukema 13 Rrahmani 5 Jesus 22 Lorenzo 68 Lobotka ⚽ 8 McTominay 37 Spinazzola 26 Vergara 20 Elmas 19 Højlund 49 Murić 6 Walukiewicz 21 Idzes 80 Muharemović 3 Doig 35 Lipani 18 Matić 40 Vranckx 20 Fadera 99 Pinamonti 45 Laurienté
Subs used · NAP
57' Politano ↑ · Elmas ↓
57' Lang ↑ · Beukema ↓
62' Mazzocchi ↑ · Vergara ↓
67' Buongiorno ↑ · Rrahmani ↓
Subs used · SAS
54' Iannoni ↑ · Vranckx ↓
81' Skjellerup ↑ · Fadera ↓
81' Coulibaly ↑ · Doig ↓
89' Cheddira ↑ · Pinamonti ↓
89' Moro ↑ · Lipani ↓

Statistics

NAP 1 – 0 SAS
53%
Possession (%)
47%
0.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.96
11
Total Shots
21
4
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
7
5
Shots Inside Box
9
5
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
11
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
0
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

12 · 1 – 0
S. Lobotka
1–0
⚽
7'
Half-time · 1 – 0
53'
▮
Aster Vranckx
Yellow Card
54'
⇄
E. Iannoni ↓ · A. Vranckx ↑
Substitution 1
M. Politano ↓ · E. Elmas ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
N. Lang ↓ · S. Beukema ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
P. Mazzocchi ↓ · A. Vergara ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
A. Buongiorno ↓ · A. Rrahmani ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
67'
81'
⇄
L. Skjellerup ↓ · A. Fadera ↑
Substitution 2
81'
⇄
W. Coulibaly ↓ · J. Doig ↑
Substitution 3
84'
▮
Edoardo Iannoni
Yellow Card
89'
⇄
W. Cheddira ↓ · A. Pinamonti ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
L. Moro ↓ · L. Lipani ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Napoli beat Sassuolo 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 11, 4 on target.

On the scoresheet: S. Lobotka (7').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.83 units (Brier 0.132).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.89 — 55% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.29 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.67 — 57% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.07 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.49 — 71% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 92% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.85 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.13 — 71% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 29% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 76% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 91% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 4.60 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.34 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.60 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.80 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.90 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.83u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
NAP – SAS @ 1.49
+5.1%
Edge
Forecast →