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Atalanta vs Torino 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 L D W L D
Kick-off
Sat 10 Jan · 19:45
2:0
Full-time
Torino
Torino
D L W L D Away · last 5
New Balance Arena · Bergamo Referee Francesco Fourneau, Italy
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 64% · book 1.70 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 51% · book 1.94 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 49% · book 2.01 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.61 – 0.75
Δ +1.86
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.70 — +8.4% better than the market.

Atalanta enter this clash with a clear quality edge and solid home momentum, boasting a strong defensive record that could stifle Torino's attacks. Their offensive firepower faces a Torino defense that has struggled, suggesting Atalanta's pressing and set-piece threat may prove decisive. Recent form favors Atalanta slightly, hinting at a controlled tempo with chances for multiple goals.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Atalanta's recent winning rhythm
  • Moderate pace expected with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.70 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 59% +0.70u
+70%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · TOR 3-5-2
Subs used · ATA
44' Hien ↑ · Djimsiti ↓
67' Musah ↑ · Scalvini ↓
67' Scamacca ↑ · Krstovic ↓
79' Pasalic ↑ · Zalewski ↓
79' Samardzic ↑ · De Ketelaere ↓
Subs used · TOR
57' Ilkhan ↑ · Tameze ↓
57' Simeone ↑ · Zapata ↓
57' Adams ↑ · Ngonge ↓
85' Biraghi ↑ · Lazaro ↓
86' Njie ↑ · Aboukhlal ↓

Statistics

ATA 2 – 0 TOR
57%
Possession (%)
43%
2.61
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.75
18
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
5
11
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
4
4
Offsides
3
14
Fouls
17
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

15 · 2 – 0
C. De Ketelaere
Assist · L. Bernasconi · 1–0
⚽
13'
25'
▮
Adrien Tameze
Yellow Card
I. Hien ↓ · B. Djimsiti ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
44'
Half-time · 1 – 0
57'
⇄
E. Ilkhan ↓ · A. Tameze ↑
Substitution 1
57'
⇄
G. Simeone ↓ · D. Zapata ↑
Substitution 2
57'
⇄
C. Adams ↓ · C. Ngonge ↑
Substitution 3
62'
▮
Emirhan İlkhan
Yellow Card
Y. Musah ↓ · G. Scalvini ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
G. Scamacca ↓ · N. Krstovic ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
M. Pasalic ↓ · N. Zalewski ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
L. Samardzic ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
79'
85'
⇄
C. Biraghi ↓ · V. Lazaro ↑
Substitution 4
86'
⇄
A. Njie ↓ · Z. Aboukhlal ↑
Substitution 5
Yunus Musah
Yellow Card
▮
87'
M. Pasalic
Assist · G. Scamacca · 2–0
⚽
90'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Atalanta beat Torino 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.61 to 0.75. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 10, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: C. De Ketelaere (13'), M. Pasalic (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.12 units (Brier 0.109).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.70 — 64% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.94 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.01 — 49% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.99 — 49% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.30 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.18 — 87% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.25 — 64% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 92% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.39 — 70% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 — 75% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.25 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.80 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.00 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.62 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.97 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.12u −30% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
ATA – TOR @ 1.70
+8.4%
Edge
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