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Home › Italy › Serie A › Genoa — Cagliari

Predictions by Market: Genoa vs Cagliari

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L D D L L
Kick-off
Mon 12 Jan · 17:30
3:0
Full-time
Cagliari
Cagliari
W D L W W Away · last 5
Luigi Ferraris · Genoa Referee Federico La Penna, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · GEN
39%
Best 2.16
Draw
30%
Best 2.97
Away Win · CAG
32%
Best 4.00
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.78
Fair odds
1.63
book 1.78 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 62% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (68%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 31.6%
Odds 4.43
Show model details
Implied probability 22.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 29.9%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 37.1%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 36.3%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.1%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 17.5%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 12.9%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 42.7%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 31.6%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 38.5%
Odds 1.46
Show model details
Implied probability 68.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GEN – CAG @ 1.78
+9.5%
Edge
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