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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cremonese — Cagliari

Cremonese vs Cagliari 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cremonese
Cremonese
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Thu 08 Jan · 17:30
2:2
Full-time
Cagliari
Cagliari
W D L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Giovanni Zini · Cremona Referee Kevin Bonacina, Italy
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 63% · book 1.69 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.87 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 61% · book 1.62 ✓
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.72 – 1.81
Δ −0.09
Possession
44% – 56%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.00 — +10.0% better than the market.

Cremonese and Cagliari face off in a tight Serie A clash where the quality gap is minimal, suggesting a balanced contest. Cremonese’s home edge is slight, hinting at a modest advantage in familiar surroundings. Both teams show similar attacking and defensive metrics, but Cagliari’s recent form is a touch sharper, indicating a potential pressing edge. Expect a compact game with limited chances and a moderate pace, favoring cautious play and a possible low-scoring outcome.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away attacking resilience
  • Close quality levels suggest tactical discipline
  • Recent form favors Cagliari’s momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.00 ✗ Lost
AI 37% Implied 33% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CRE 3-5-2 · CAG 3-4-2-1
CRE · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · CAG 1 Audero 24 Terracciano 6 Baschirotto 15 Bianchetti 22 Mussolini 32 Payero 38 Bondo 11 Johnsen ⚽ 3 Pezzella 10 Vardy ⚽ 90 Bonazzoli 1 Caprile 6 Luperto 26 Mina 15 Rodríguez 28 Zappa 8 Adopo ⚽ 16 Prati 2 Palestra 77 Luvumbo 10 Gaetano 29 Borrelli
Subs used · CRE
60' Barbieri ↑ · Johnsen ↓
60' Zerbin ↑ · Pezzella ↓
60' Vandeputte ↑ · Bondo ↓
90+3' Grassi ↑ · Payero ↓
90+3' Sanabria ↑ · Vardy ↓
Subs used · CAG
46' Esposito ↑ · Mina ↓
56' Mazzitelli ↑ · Prati ↓
56' Obert ↑ · Luvumbo ↓
66' Kilicsoy ↑ · Gaetano ↓
84' Trepy ↑ · Zappa ↓

Statistics

CRE 2 – 2 CAG
44%
Possession (%)
56%
1.72
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.81
12
Total Shots
21
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
9
8
Shots Inside Box
13
2
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
16
Fouls
12
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 2 – 2
2'
▮
Gennaro Borrelli
Yellow Card
D. Johnsen
Assist · J. Vardy · 1–0
⚽
4'
Warren Bondo
Yellow Card
▮
11'
J. Vardy
Assist · F. Bonazzoli · 2–0
⚽
29'
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⇄
S. Esposito ↓ · Y. Mina ↑
Substitution 1
51'
⚽
M. Adopo
Assist · G. Borrelli · 2–1
56'
⇄
L. Mazzitelli ↓ · M. Prati ↑
Substitution 2
56'
⇄
A. Obert ↓ · Z. Luvumbo ↑
Substitution 3
T. Barbieri ↓ · D. Johnsen ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
A. Zerbin ↓ · G. Pezzella ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
J. Vandeputte ↓ · W. Bondo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
66'
⇄
S. Kilicsoy ↓ · G. Gaetano ↑
Substitution 4
Federico Bonazzoli
Yellow Card
▮
81'
84'
⇄
Y. Trepy ↓ · G. Zappa ↑
Substitution 5
88'
⚽
Y. Trepy
Assist · L. Mazzitelli · 2–2
90+2'
▮
Sebastiano Luperto
Yellow Card
A. Grassi ↓ · M. Payero ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+3'
A. Sanabria ↓ · J. Vardy ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Cremonese and Cagliari drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 12, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Johnsen (4'), J. Vardy (29'), M. Adopo (51'), Y. Trepy (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.50 units (Brier 0.258).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.69 — 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.87 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.62 — 61% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Home Win 2.50 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.37 — 37% Cashed +1.37 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.99 — 43% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.30 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.74 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.00 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.29 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.39 — 67% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.45 — 63% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.23 — 82% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.10 — 88% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 3.25 — 28% Cashed +2.25 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.33 — 18% Cashed +3.33 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.50u +3% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CRE – CAG @ 3.00
+10.0%
Edge
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