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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cagliari — AC Milan

Match Cagliari vs AC Milan January 2, 2026 — Result and Stats

Italy   /   Serie A
Cagliari
Cagliari
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Fri 02 Jan · 19:45
0:1
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Unipol Domus · Cagliari Referee Rosario Abisso, Italy
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 66% · book 1.62 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.90 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.11 ✗
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.38 – 0.92
Δ −0.54
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AC Milan enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Unipol Domus. Their potent attack faces a Cagliari defense that has struggled to contain opponents, while Milan's solid defensive line should limit home chances. The home side’s resilience and home momentum could spark some resistance, but the visitors' pressing edge and sharper offensive threat make them favorites.

  • Milan’s superior quality gap and offensive firepower
  • Cagliari’s home momentum and fighting spirit
  • Likely tactical control by Milan’s compact block

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

CAG 3-5-2 · MIL 3-5-2
CAG · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · MIL 1 Caprile 28 Zappa 6 Luperto 15 Rodríguez 2 Palestra 8 Adopo 16 Prati 4 Mazzitelli 33 Obert 9 Kılıçsoy 94 Esposito 16 Maignan 23 Tomori 5 Winter 33 Bartesaghi 56 Saelemaekers 19 Fofana 14 Modrić 12 Rabiot 2 Estupiñán 10 Leão ⚽ 8 Loftus-Cheek
Subs used · CAG
60' Idrissi ↑ · Obert ↓
61' Borrelli ↑ · Prati ↓
66' Gaetano ↑ · Esposito ↓
83' Cavuoti ↑ · Mazzitelli ↓
83' Pavoletti ↑ · Kilicsoy ↓
Subs used · MIL
69' Ricci ↑ · Fofana ↓
69' Fullkrug ↑ · Leao ↓
79' Pulisic ↑ · Loftus-Cheek ↓
79' Gabbia ↑ · Estupinan ↓

📊 Statistics

CAG 0 – 1 MIL
46%
Possession (%)
54%
0.38
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.92
6
Total Shots
11
1
Shots on Target
4
4
Shots off Target
4
4
Shots Inside Box
7
6
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
8
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
50'
⚽
R. Leao
Assist · A. Rabiot · 0–1
R. Idrissi ↓ · A. Obert ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
G. Borrelli ↓ · M. Prati ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
G. Gaetano ↓ · S. Esposito ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
69'
⇄
S. Ricci ↓ · Y. Fofana ↑
Substitution 1
69'
⇄
N. Fullkrug ↓ · R. Leao ↑
Substitution 2
79'
⇄
C. Pulisic ↓ · R. Loftus-Cheek ↑
Substitution 3
79'
⇄
M. Gabbia ↓ · P. Estupinan ↑
Substitution 4
Riyad Idrissi
Yellow Card
▮
83'
N. Cavuoti ↓ · L. Mazzitelli ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
L. Pavoletti ↓ · S. Kilicsoy ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
Marco Palestra
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+1'
▮
Alexis Saelemaekers
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

AC Milan won 1–0 away at Cagliari. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 0.92 to 0.38. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 6, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Leao (50').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.34 units (Brier 0.144).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.62 — 66% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.90 — 54% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.11 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.77 — 55% Cashed +0.77 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.12 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 2.49 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.16 — 89% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.22 — 66% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.60 — 28% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 75% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 — 91% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.34 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.17 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 6.60 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 4.71 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.34u −20% ROI