Match Sassuolo vs Parma January 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +10.7% better than the market.

Sassuolo holds a clear quality edge over Parma, backed by a stronger overall squad and home advantage. Despite Parma's recent winning streak, Sassuolo's defensive solidity and home momentum could stifle their attack. The matchup favors a controlled pace with a likely compact block from Parma, aiming to frustrate Sassuolo's offense.

Home edge in defense and overall strength
Parma's pressing threat limited by Sassuolo's shape
Moderate tempo suggests fewer high-scoring chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 56% +0.80u

+80%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAS 4-3-3 · PAR 4-3-3

SAS · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · PAR

45 Laurienté

Subs used · SAS

59'

Kone ↑ ·

Lipani ↓

74'

Cheddira ↑ ·

Fadera ↓

85'

Moro ↑ ·

Pinamonti ↓

85'

Pierini ↑ ·

Lauriente ↓

86'

Cande ↑ ·

Doig ↓

Subs used · PAR

70'

Estevez ↑ ·

Ondrejka ↓

70'

Almqvist ↑ ·

Oristanio ↓

78'

Britschgi ↑ ·

Del Prato ↓

📊 Statistics

SAS 1 – 1 PAR

53%

Possession (%)

47%

0.86

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.94

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 1 – 1

K. Thorstvedt

Assist · S. Walukiewicz · 1–0

⚽

12'

24'

⚽

M. Pellegrino

1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

Nemanja Matić

Yellow Card

▮

59'

I. Kone ↓ · L. Lipani ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

70'

⇄

N. Estevez ↓ · J. Ondrejka ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

P. Almqvist ↓ · G. Oristanio ↑

Substitution 2

W. Cheddira ↓ · A. Fadera ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

78'

⇄

S. Britschgi ↓ · E. Del Prato ↑

Substitution 3

L. Moro ↓ · A. Pinamonti ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

N. Pierini ↓ · A. Lauriente ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

F. Cande ↓ · J. Doig ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

89'

▮

Alessandro Circati

Yellow Card

Sebastian Walukiewicz

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Sassuolo and Parma drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Thorstvedt (12'), M. Pellegrino (24').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.89 units (Brier 0.170).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.80	—	61%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Home Win	2.00	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.92	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.92	—	44%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.18	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	42%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	84%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.40	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.28	—	80%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.46	—	26%	Cashed	+2.46	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	65%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.80	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.67	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.32	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.89u	−17% ROI