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Home Italy Serie A Parma — Fiorentina

Predictions Parma vs Fiorentina December 27, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 W L L L W
Kick-off
Sat 27 Dec · 11:30
1:0
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee Marco Guida, Italy
Home Win · PAR
21%
Best 3.60
Draw
28%
Best 3.20
Away Win · FIO
51%
Best 2.15
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.10
Fair odds
2.89
book 3.10 · +7.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +7.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (65%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 50.7%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 21.1%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 34.6%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.8%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.2%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 45.3%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 21.1%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 49.3%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
PAR – FIO @ 3.10
+7.3%
Edge
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