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Home World UEFA Nations League Türkiye — Italy

Predictions by Market: Türkiye vs Italy

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Türkiye
Türkiye
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Italy
Italy
W L W D W Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · TUR
35%
Best 2.90
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · ITA
39%
Best 2.32
Value pick
Home Win
@ 2.90
Fair odds
2.90
book 2.90 · +0.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Low
p 35% · EV +0.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (39%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.2%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.90
Show model details
Implied probability 34.5%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.3%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 2 markets
Under 2.5 Best in group
Probability 52.6%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 47.4%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 60.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Best in group
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
TUR – ITA @ 2.90
+0.1%
Edge
Forecast →