P
Prognosist
P
Home World UEFA Nations League Sweden — Poland

Predictions by Market: Sweden vs Poland

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Sweden
Sweden
Home · last 5 W W L D L
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Poland
Poland
W D W W L Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · SWE
46%
Best 1.97
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · POL
28%
Best 3.82
Value pick
Away Win
@ 3.82
Fair odds
3.61
book 3.82 · +5.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Low
p 28% · EV +5.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (46%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 45.9%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 27.7%
Odds 3.82
Show model details
Implied probability 26.2%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 2 markets
Under 2.5 Best in group
Probability 50.3%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 49.7%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 45.5%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
SWE – POL @ 3.82
+5.9%
Edge
Forecast →