Model verdict
Model leans toward both teams to score — 55% probability.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
With limited recent form data, this UEFA Nations League clash between Sweden and Poland looks finely balanced. The odds suggest a tight contest with a slight home edge for Sweden, who typically leverage a compact defensive block at home. Poland may look to exploit set-piece opportunities and counterattack swiftly. Expect a measured tempo given the near-even odds on goals, hinting at a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.
- Sweden's home defensive solidity
- Poland's set-piece threat
- Balanced pace and goal expectations
Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 46% | Sweden win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 50% | Under 2.5 |
| BTTS | 55% | Yes |
| Double Chance | 72% | 1X |
- 1X2 Sweden win 46%
- Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50%
- BTTS Yes 55%
- Double Chance 1X 72%
Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Sweden
W/D/L
2-1-2
Goals (for / against)
10 / 12
Avg goals / match
4.4
Scored in
4/5
Clean sheets
0/5
Both teams scored
4/5
Over 2.5
4/5
Home (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-1-2
xG (for / against)
1.00 / 1.97
Poland
W/D/L
3-1-1
Goals (for / against)
10 / 7
Avg goals / match
3.4
Scored in
5/5
Clean sheets
1/5
Both teams scored
4/5
Over 2.5
3/5
Home (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Away (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Scenario insights
①
Sweden wins when scoring first
100%
①
Poland wins when scoring first
—
⚽
Sweden BTTS rate · last 10
70%
⚽
Poland BTTS rate · last 10
70%
↑
Sweden Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
↑
Poland Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
↩
Sweden comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Poland comeback rate · last 10
50%
Goal timing
Sweden · last 1 at home
0–15
20%
16–30
20%
31–45
0%
46–60
20%
61–75
0%
76–90
40%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.