P
Prognosist
P
Home World UEFA Nations League Bulgaria — Luxembourg

Predictions by Market: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Home · last 5 L L L L W
Kick-off
Sat 26 Sep · 16:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
L L L L W Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BUL
46%
Best 2.04
Draw
28%
Best 3.30
Away Win · LUX
27%
Best 4.12
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.12
Fair odds
3.73
book 4.12 · +10.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Low
p 27% · EV +10.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (46%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 45.6%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 26.8%
Odds 4.12
Show model details
Implied probability 24.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 27.6%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 54.4%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
BUL – LUX @ 4.12
+10.6%
Edge
Forecast →