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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cremonese — Lecce

Cremonese vs Lecce 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cremonese
Cremonese
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Sun 07 Dec · 11:30
2:0
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Giovanni Zini · Cremona Referee Giuseppe Mucera, Italy
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 62% · book 1.80 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 68% · book 1.60 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 48% · book 2.56 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.04 – 0.92
Δ +1.12
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 2.70 — +12.4% better than the market.

Cremonese holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Their offensive strength outmatches Lecce's defensive setup, while Lecce's attack faces a tough defensive line. Recent form slightly favors Lecce, but Cremonese's home momentum and superior xG hint at a disciplined, low-scoring contest.

  • Home side's attacking edge vs away defense
  • Compact defensive block expected from Lecce
  • Likely cautious pace with under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 2.70 ✗ Lost
AI 42% Implied 37% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CRE 3-5-2 · LEC 4-2-3-1
CRE · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · LEC 1 Audero 24 Terracciano 6 Baschirotto 15 Bianchetti 4 Barbieri 32 Payero 38 Bondo 27 Vandeputte 22 Mussolini 90 Bonazzoli ⚽ 10 Vardy 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 4 Gaspar 44 Gabriel 25 Gallo 20 Ramadani 29 Coulibaly 50 Pierotti 10 Berisha 19 Banda 9 Štulić
Subs used · CRE
68' Zerbin ↑ · Vandeputte ↓
68' Grassi ↑ · Bondo ↓
74' Sanabria ↑ · Bonazzoli ↓
88' Vazquez ↑ · Bianchetti ↓
88' Folino ↑ · Barbieri ↓
Subs used · LEC
46' Sottil ↑ · Banda ↓
67' Ndri ↑ · Pierotti ↓
67' Camarda ↑ · Stulic ↓
77' Sala ↑ · Berisha ↓
77' Kaba ↑ · Ramadani ↓

Statistics

CRE 2 – 0 LEC
49%
Possession (%)
51%
2.04
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.92
11
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
1
3
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
12
73%
Pass Accuracy (%)
74%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 2 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
R. Sottil ↓ · L. Banda ↑
Substitution 1
45+3'
▮
Lameck Banda
Yellow Card
F. Bonazzoli (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
53'
67'
⇄
K. Ndri ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
F. Camarda ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 3
A. Zerbin ↓ · J. Vandeputte ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
A. Grassi ↓ · W. Bondo ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
A. Sanabria ↓ · F. Bonazzoli ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
77'
⇄
A. Sala ↓ · M. Berisha ↑
Substitution 4
77'
⇄
M. Kaba ↓ · Y. Ramadani ↑
Substitution 5
A. Sanabria
Assist · A. Zerbin · 2–0
⚽
78'
Matteo Bianchetti
Yellow Card
▮
83'
84'
▮
Antonino Gallo
Yellow Card
F. Vazquez ↓ · M. Bianchetti ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
F. Folino ↓ · T. Barbieri ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Cremonese beat Lecce 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.04 to 0.92. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Bonazzoli (53'), A. Sanabria (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.03 units (Brier 0.117).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.80 — 62% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.60 — 68% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Home Win 2.56 — 48% Cashed +1.56 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.70 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.79 — 48% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.61 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.13 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.27 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.00 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 — 77% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Draw 3.12 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.53 — 58% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.58 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.19 — 85% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.12 — 86% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Away Win 3.31 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 5.00 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.03u −24% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CRE – LEC @ 2.70
+12.4%
Edge
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