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Home World UEFA Europa League AC Milan — Benfica

Predictions AC Milan vs Benfica September 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 L W W D D
Kick-off
Wed 16 Sep · 19:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Benfica
Benfica
W W D W W Away · last 5
Referee J. Gillett
Home Win · MIL
44%
Best 2.16
Draw
26%
Best 3.64
Away Win · BEN
30%
Best 3.40
Value pick
Away Win
@ 3.48
Fair odds
3.32
book 3.48 · +4.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Low
p 30% · EV +4.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (44%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 44.1%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 30.1%
Odds 3.48
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 25.8%
Odds 3.62
Show model details
Implied probability 27.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 44.9%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.4%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 40.5%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 30.1%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 44.1%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 69.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
MIL – BEN @ 3.48
+4.7%
Edge
Forecast →