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Home › Italy › Serie A › AS Roma — Napoli

AS Roma vs Napoli 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AS Roma
AS Roma
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 30 Nov · 19:45
0:1
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 45% · book 2.60 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 50% · book 2.05 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 1.83 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.56 – 1.03
Δ −0.47
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 1.5 at 1.50 — +5.6% better than the market.

AS Roma shows strong home momentum with four wins in five, leveraging a solid defensive setup against Napoli's potent attack. Napoli's offensive edge and slightly higher overall quality suggest a tactical battle where Roma's compact block will be tested. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, as both sides have shown resilience recently.

  • Roma's home defensive discipline vs Napoli's attacking threat
  • Napoli's quality advantage and pressing edge
  • Recent form favors Roma's momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 1.5
Over 1.5 @ 1.50 ✗ Lost
AI 70% Implied 67% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · NAP 3-4-3
ROM · 3-4-2-1 3-4-3 · NAP 99 Svilar 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 22 Hermoso 19 Çelik 4 Cristante 17 Koné 43 Wesley 18 Soulé 7 Pellegrini 11 Ferguson 32 Milinković-Savić 31 Beukema 13 Rrahmani 4 Buongiorno 22 Lorenzo 68 Lobotka 8 McTominay 17 Olivera 7 Neres ⚽ 19 Højlund 70 Lang
Subs used · ROM
46' Baldanzi ↑ · Ferguson ↓
62' El Aynaoui ↑ · Cristante ↓
62' Dybala ↑ · Soule ↓
80' Bailey ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
82' El Shaarawy ↑ · Franca ↓
Subs used · NAP
69' Politano ↑ · Lang ↓
80' Elmas ↑ · Hojlund ↓
85' Lucca ↑ · Neres ↓

Statistics

ROM 0 – 1 NAP
56%
Possession (%)
44%
0.56
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.03
8
Total Shots
7
2
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
2
5
Shots Inside Box
3
4
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
4
14
Fouls
13
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
4
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

16 · 0 – 1
36'
⚽
David Neres
Assist · R. Hojlund · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
T. Baldanzi ↓ · E. Ferguson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Bryan Cristante
Yellow Card
▮
54'
62'
▮
Stanislav Lobotka
Yellow Card
N. El Aynaoui ↓ · B. Cristante ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
P. Dybala ↓ · M. Soule ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
64'
▮
Sam Beukema
Yellow Card
69'
⇄
M. Politano ↓ · N. Lang ↑
Substitution 1
Tommaso Baldanzi
Yellow Card
▮
73'
L. Bailey ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
80'
⇄
E. Elmas ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑
Substitution 2
S. El Shaarawy ↓ · Wesley Franca ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
85'
⇄
L. Lucca ↓ · David Neres ↑
Substitution 3
Evan Ndicka
Yellow Card
▮
86'
Stephan El Shaarawy
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
90+6'
▮
Mathías Olivera
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Napoli won 1–0 away at AS Roma. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: David Neres (36').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.63 units (Brier 0.209).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.60 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.05 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.83 — 50% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.61 — 55% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Home Win 2.70 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.14 — 39% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.75 — 30% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.82 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.19 — 39% Cashed +2.19 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.50 — 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.53 — 68% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.40 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 5.20 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.02 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.12 — 90% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.20 — 76% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.63u −10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 1.5
ROM – NAP @ 1.50
+5.6%
Edge
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