Match Fiorentina vs Lecce November 2, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +11.2% better than the market.

Serie A Preview: Fiorentina vs Lecce

Fiorentina holds a quality edge and a moderate home advantage, but recent form suggests struggles, with only one point from five. Lecce’s defensive solidity could frustrate the hosts, as their compact backline limits Fiorentina’s attacking threat. Expect a cautious tempo with a low goal count, given the strong defensive setups and recent scoring trends.

Fiorentina’s home edge is tempered by poor recent form
Lecce’s disciplined defense likely to stifle chances
Match leans toward a tight, low-scoring affair

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 56% +0.80u

+80%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FIO 3-5-2 · LEC 4-2-3-1

FIO · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · LEC

9 Džeko

Subs used · FIO

46'

Sohm ↑ ·

Ndour ↓

46'

Mandragora ↑ ·

Nicolussi Caviglia ↓

46'

Gudmundsson ↑ ·

Fagioli ↓

59'

Piccoli ↑ ·

Dzeko ↓

77'

Fazzini ↑ ·

Comuzzo ↓

Subs used · LEC

73'

Pierotti ↑ ·

Banda ↓

76'

Maleh ↑ ·

Berisha ↓

89'

Camarda ↑ ·

Stulic ↓

89'

Kaba ↑ ·

Morente ↓

📊 Statistics

FIO 0 – 1 LEC

63%

Possession (%)

37%

1.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.16

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

68%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Yellow Card

▮

14'

Nicolò Fagioli

Yellow Card

▮

15'

23'

⚽

M. Berisha

Assist · Tete Morente · 0–1

41'

▮

Danilo Veiga

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

S. Sohm ↓ · C. Ndour ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

R. Mandragora ↓ · H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

A. Gudmundsson ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

46'

R. Piccoli ↓ · E. Dzeko ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

59'

Moise Kean

Yellow Card

▮

66'

73'

⇄

S. Pierotti ↓ · L. Banda ↑

Substitution 1

76'

⇄

Y. Maleh ↓ · M. Berisha ↑

Substitution 2

J. Fazzini ↓ · P. Comuzzo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

Luca Ranieri

Yellow Card

▮

87'

89'

⇄

F. Camarda ↓ · N. Stulic ↑

Substitution 3

89'

⇄

M. Kaba ↓ · Tete Morente ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Lecce won 1–0 away at Fiorentina. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Berisha (23').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.67 units (Brier 0.296).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.80	—	62%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Home Win	1.69	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.73	—	62%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.22	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.32	—	37%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.18	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	—	36%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.17	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.25	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.28	—	81%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.00	—	13%	Cashed	+5.00	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.10	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.25	—	13%	Cashed	+3.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+4.67u	+27% ROI