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Home › Italy › Serie A › Juventus — AC Milan

Juventus vs AC Milan 0:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Juventus
Juventus
Home · last 5 D D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 18:45
0:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Marco Guida, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.87 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 35% · book 2.89 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 37% · book 2.72 ✗
Total goals
0
0 · 0
xG (open play)
0.68 – 1.74
Δ −1.06
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
4 / 7
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.87 — +4.7% better than the market.

Juventus vs AC Milan profiles as a high-level, finely balanced clash. The hosts carry a reliable home edge and strong structure, while Milan arrive with better recent results and a solid back line. Margins look thin, so our baseline keeps the draw live and leans toward conservative angles.

Tempo should be measured with long phases of control on both sides, making unders slightly more attractive than the market implies. The first goal and set-piece efficiency are the key swing factors that can tilt the match away from a cagey script.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.87 ✓ Cashed
AI 56% Implied 54% +0.87u
+87%
ROI on stake

Lineups

JUV 3-4-2-1 · MIL 3-5-2
Subs used · JUV
68' Thuram ↑ · David ↓
68' Vlahovic ↑ · Yildiz ↓
68' Openda ↑ · Conceicao ↓
86' Kostic ↑ · Rugani ↓
Subs used · MIL
63' Loftus-Cheek ↑ · Fofana ↓
63' Leao ↑ · Gimenez ↓
74' Nkunku ↑ · Pulisic ↓

Statistics

JUV 0 – 0 MIL
51%
Possession (%)
49%
0.68
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.74
12
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Target
4
7
Shots off Target
7
8
Shots Inside Box
7
6
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
8
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
90%
2
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

11 · 0 – 0
44'
▮
Youssouf Fofana
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Manuel Locatelli
Yellow Card
▮
49'
59'
▮
Davide Bartesaghi
Yellow Card
63'
⇄
R. Loftus-Cheek ↓ · Y. Fofana ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
R. Leao ↓ · S. Gimenez ↑
Substitution 2
K. Thuram ↓ · J. David ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
D. Vlahovic ↓ · K. Yildiz ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
L. Openda ↓ · F. Conceicao ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
Federico Gatti
Yellow Card
▮
74'
74'
⇄
C. Nkunku ↓ · C. Pulisic ↑
Substitution 3
F. Kostic ↓ · D. Rugani ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

Juventus and AC Milan drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.74 to 0.68. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 4 landed and 3 missed, for a net +1.79 units (Brier 0.268).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 4 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.87 — 56% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
Away Win 2.89 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.72 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.05 — 48% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Draw 3.35 — 29% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.37 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.52 — 64% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 4 W · 3 L +1.79u +26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
JUV – MIL @ 1.87
+4.7%
Edge
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