Lazio vs Torino: Lazio carry the home edge and the more stable attacking shape, while Torino’s recent output and defensive leaks limit their ceiling. Expect a controlled pace with the draw still in play if Lazio don’t land the first punch early. Our numbers tilt toward conservative cores (unders/BTTS No) with a small long-shot path on the away price.
Lazio and Torino drew 3–3. At half-time it was 2–1.
On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 1.38. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 8 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.38 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: G. Simeone (16'), M. Cancellieri (24'), M. Cancellieri (40'), C. Adams (73'), S. Coco (90'), D. Cataldi (90').
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 2 landed and 5 missed, for a net -1.01 units (Brier 0.262).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 1.82 | — | 54% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 5.59 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.19 | — | 46% | Cashed | +1.19 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 3.35 | — | 30% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.80 | — | 26% | Cashed | +2.80 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 1.84 | — | 53% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 1.78 | — | 54% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 2 W · 5 L | −1.01u | −14% ROI |
