Atalanta vs Como: the hosts rate clearly stronger on overall level and recent output, with home edge pointing to longer spells of pressure. Como can counter and create in transition, but sustained control should tilt toward Atalanta. The market sits close on totals; our lean is a mildly open game where the home side’s chance volume nudges the number over the key threshold.
Atalanta and Como drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.
In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: L. Samardzic (6'), M. Perrone (19').
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 4 landed and 3 missed, for a net +0.98 units (Brier 0.212).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.26 | — | 47% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.87 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 3.54 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.52 | — | 26% | Cashed | +2.52 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.68 | — | 56% | Cashed | +0.68 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.42 | — | 71% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.36 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.36 | Cashed |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 4 W · 3 L | +0.98u | +14% ROI |
